Cultural landscapes of the future: using agent-based modeling to discuss and develop the use and management of the cultural landscape of South West Devon

Abstract

Context Hedgerows are typical landscape features of high environmental and cultural value that often have been sacrificed for agricultural intensification and scale enlargement. Objectives We studied the dynamics of hedgerow quality over time in a case study area renowned for its hedgerow landscapes: South West Devon (UK) answering the following research questions: (1) how does the imperative of scale enlargement affect hedgerow quality? and (2) to what extent can cultural landscape degradation be countered by targeted policies? Methods We applied an agent-based modeling approach, parameterized with a site specific survey, to explore and discuss outcomes of future landscape change with stakeholders and co-designed preferred scenarios of landscape change during a workshop. Results Outcomes suggested that in the case-study area, scale enlargement has a negative effect on hedgerow quality when agri-environment scheme subsidies (AES) are low. In contrast, if the level of AES enrollment is high, scale enlargement can have a positive effect on hedgerow quality, as large holders are more likely to enroll for AES. Stakeholders acknowledged the need for agricultural intensification, but at the same time valued biodiversity and environmental value of the landscape in South West Devon. Conclusion Current AES are able to retain a decent hedgerow quality. With lower AES, scale enlargement can have an invigorative effect on hedgerow quality as land managers of larger farms will be less likely to join AES As an addition to AES, harvesting wood fuel from coppiced hedgerows appears a promising way to incentivize rejuvenating hedgerow management without governmental subsidies.

Contextualizing local landscape initiatives in global change: a scenario study for the high forest zone, Ghana

“…Land change scenarios that aim to clarify and visualize the uncertainties intrinsic to the future can facilitate dialog among key stakeholders and can provide a platform for envisioning what land use ambitions could look like for the landscape (Bürgi et al 2017;Meijer et al 2018;Verburg et al 2019). Such visualizations are common in discussing small-scale landscape interventions (Tieskens et al 2017;Zagaria et al 2017) but could play a similar role in the context of shaping subnational frameworks to harmonize with global environmental policy targets.…”

Analyzing dynamics and values of cultural landscapes

“…In a European setting, agri-environmental support schemes and direct payments are a major factor that should be considered when assessing the future of agricultural landscapes. Tieskens et al (2017) studied the impact of agri-environmental schemes on decisions made by farmers of different types of farms and specifically considered consequences on a specific and emblematic element of cultural landscapes-hedgerows in South West Devon (UK). Farm size and payment level were found to be influential.…”

“…In the studies presented in this special issue, these are remote sensing image analyses and species distribution modelling (Li et al 2017;Montti et al 2017), oral history interviews Li et al 2017), stakeholder workshops and Agent-Based Modelling (Tieskens et al 2017), Public Participation GIS approaches , expert elicitation (Hernández-Morcillo et al 2017), and household surveys (Dorresteijn et al 2017).…”

Modelling land use dynamics in socio-ecological systems: A case study in the UK uplands

“…Furthermore, models might also be designed to inform policy debates by providing a framework to anticipate and test how land use patterns may change under different hypothetical future scenarios (e.g. Wolff et al, 2018;Tieskens et al, 2017). Several interesting approaches have emerged to address different aspects of such research questions.…”

“…Never the less, a few studies have attempted to develop more realistic systems (see eg. Evans and Kelley 2004;Tieskens et al, 2017) and accounting for the role of decisions of heterogonous agents in landuse changes (Huigen 2004). A similar line of land-use related contributions have sought to determine how new agricultural practices are adopted by a population of farmers to better understand diffusion of technology (Balmann 1997, Berger 2001, Polhill et al 2001Schreinemachers et al, 2011).…”