Modelling land use dynamics in socio-ecological systems: A case study in the UK uplands

Abstract

It is well-recognised that to achieve long-term sustainable and resilient land management we needs to understand the coupled dynamics of social and ecological systems. Land use change scenarios, will often aim to understand i) the behaviours of land management, influenced by direct and indirect drivers, ii) the resulting changes in land use and iii) the environmental implications of these changes. While the literature in this field is extensive, approaches to parameterise coupled systems through integration of empirical social science based models and ecology based models still need further development. We propose an approach to land use dynamics modelling based on the integration of behavioural models derived from choice experiments and spatially explicit systems dynamics modelling. This involves the specification of a choice model to parameterise land use behaviour and the integration with a spatial habitat succession model.We test this approach in an upland socio-ecological system in the United Kingdom. We conduct a choice experiment with land managers in the Peak District National Park. The elicited preferences forms the basis for a behavioural model, which is integrated with a habitat succession model to predict the landscape level vegetation impacts. The integrated model allows us to create projections of how land use may change in the future under different environmental and policy scenarios, and the impact this may have on landscape vegetation patterns. We illustrate this by showing future projection of landscape changes related to hypothetical changes to EU level agricultural management incentives.The advantages of this approach are, (i) the approach takes into account potential environmental and management feedbacks, an aspect often ignored in choice modelling, (ii) the behavioural rules are revealed from actual and hypothetical choice data, which allows the research to test the empirical evidence for various determinants of choice, (iii) the behavioural choice models generates probabilities of alternative behaviours which makes them ideally suited for integration with simulation models.The paper concludes that the modelling approach offers a promissing route for linking socio-economic and ecological features of socio-ecological systems. Furthermore, our proposed approach allows testing of the underlying socio-economic and environmental drivers and their interaction in real environmental systems.

The vegetation cover dynamics and potential drivers of habitat change over 30 years in the Free State National Botanical Garden, South Africa

“…The validation of ecological integrity showed that the Bloemfontein Karroid Shrubland still has excellent vegetation cover (79.6 ± 15.9%), possibly due to effective protection by the FSNBG. Termansen et al (2019) indicated that vegetation cover reflects both the natural habitat health and the adaptive management responses. For example, Hesp (1991) reported that excellent vegetation cover reduces splash erosion by intercepting rainfall, decreasing the overland flow and improving the infiltration of precipitation into the soil.…”

Research on the Optimal Allocation of Ecological Land from the Perspective of Human Needs—Taking Hechi City, Guangxi as an Example

“…Wang, G. et al [22] established a multi-objective spatial optimization model based on land use classification results to provide land use zoning plans for municipal governments in the context of low-carbon urban development. Termansen et al [23] proposed a modeling approach for land use dynamics based on choice experiments and spatially explicit system dynamics modeling to predict trends in land use under different environmental and policy scenarios. The study of construction land expansion and the study of optimal allocation of arable land are the main objects for research.…”

Mapping validity and validation in modelling for interdisciplinary research

“…The system-level behaviour of a CAS emerges from interactions amongst decision makers and between individual decision makers and the environment. Examples of CAS are energy markets (North et al 2002, with businesses, and electricity consumers as decision makers, within an environment composed of the power market and regulating administration), or land-use systems (Termansen et al 2019, with farmers and land managers as decision makers, and the land and its vegetation as environment).…”