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“…Concerning indirect consequences of CC, biotic stresses (such as pests) are difficult to predict [36] and are not included in the model. Some impacts of climate events on crop yield were also not simulated, such as the higher crop lodging during extreme wind and rain events [67]. We may expect that the tree stand in AF could attenuate these effects due to wind speed reduction and increases in rain interception in respect to A.…”
Section: Limitations Of the Modeling Approachmentioning
Introduction: Climate change (CC) and the increased occurrence of extreme climatic events pose a serious threat to crop yields and their stability worldwide. This study analyzed the CC mitigation potential of an alley cropping system on crop physiological stresses and growth as compared to a monoculture system. Materials and Methods: Growth of winter durum wheat, cultivated alone (agriculture) and in combination with hybrid walnut (agroforestry), was simulated with the Hi-sAFe agroforestry model, as driven by business-as-usual Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) projections, split into three scenarios, representing Past (1951–1990), Present (1991–2030), and Future (2031–2070) climatic conditions. Crop growth and the occurrence of thermal, nitrogen, and water stresses were analyzed. Results: Cold-related stresses were modest in Past and almost disappeared over time. Heat, drought, and nitrogen stresses increased about twofold from Past to Future, but were reduced by 20–35% in agroforestry, already with medium-sized trees (diameter at breast height (DBH) of about 10–15 cm). Crop yields in agriculture increased from Past to the end of Present and then remained stable. This moderately decreased with tree age in agroforestry (especially in Future). Discussion: The impact of CC on the crop was buffered in agroforestry, especially for the most extreme climatic events. The mitigation of crop microclimate and the increased stability of crop yields highlight the potential of agroforestry as a CC adaptation strategy.
“…Concerning indirect consequences of CC, biotic stresses (such as pests) are difficult to predict [36] and are not included in the model. Some impacts of climate events on crop yield were also not simulated, such as the higher crop lodging during extreme wind and rain events [67]. We may expect that the tree stand in AF could attenuate these effects due to wind speed reduction and increases in rain interception in respect to A.…”
Section: Limitations Of the Modeling Approachmentioning
Introduction: Climate change (CC) and the increased occurrence of extreme climatic events pose a serious threat to crop yields and their stability worldwide. This study analyzed the CC mitigation potential of an alley cropping system on crop physiological stresses and growth as compared to a monoculture system. Materials and Methods: Growth of winter durum wheat, cultivated alone (agriculture) and in combination with hybrid walnut (agroforestry), was simulated with the Hi-sAFe agroforestry model, as driven by business-as-usual Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) projections, split into three scenarios, representing Past (1951–1990), Present (1991–2030), and Future (2031–2070) climatic conditions. Crop growth and the occurrence of thermal, nitrogen, and water stresses were analyzed. Results: Cold-related stresses were modest in Past and almost disappeared over time. Heat, drought, and nitrogen stresses increased about twofold from Past to Future, but were reduced by 20–35% in agroforestry, already with medium-sized trees (diameter at breast height (DBH) of about 10–15 cm). Crop yields in agriculture increased from Past to the end of Present and then remained stable. This moderately decreased with tree age in agroforestry (especially in Future). Discussion: The impact of CC on the crop was buffered in agroforestry, especially for the most extreme climatic events. The mitigation of crop microclimate and the increased stability of crop yields highlight the potential of agroforestry as a CC adaptation strategy.
“…However, in some areas, high cropping intensity increases the chance of rice plant to get the extreme weather impact, e.g., strong wind and heavy rainfall, causing physiological disorder and plant lodging. Strong wind velocity is a kind of abiotic stress, and it causes detriment to rice production through shreds leaves and rice grain shattering, and lodging (Baker et al, 2014;Sridevi and Chellamuthu, 2015;Gardiner et al, 2016;Martinez-Vazquez, 2016). In Indonesia, Santosa et al (2016) estimate that annual rice loss due to lodging was about US$ 270 million.…”
Section: Introductionmentioning
confidence: 99%
“…In this case, we assume that lodging is due to weak rice hill. It is well known that crop sensitivity to strong wind impact and lodging is determined by wind speed, species, variety, growth stage, plant architecture, nutrient status, plant biometry and leaf orientation (Hayashi et al, 2011;Ishimaru et al, 2012;Selino Keywords: Double row spacing, extreme weather, lodging simulation, strong wind, weight holding capacity and Jones, 2013; Sridevi and Chellamuthu, 2015;Tadrist et al, 2015;Martinez-Vazquez, 2016). According to Niu et al (2016) combination between strong wind and heavy rainfall causes more marked damage in wheat.…”
Plant spacing arrangement might benefit hill strength from the impact of strong wind velocity during extreme weather situations. Here, a loading test to evaluate rice hill strength was performed on Ciherang variety grown in square and double row spacing 2:1. The research was conducted at Cilubang village, Dramaga, Bogor, West Java, Indonesia from March to May 2017. Weight holding capacity was evaluated in 85 days after transplanting on four levels of hill height, i.e., 80 cm, 60 cm, 40 cm, and 20 cm above soil level with three-time replication. The results showed that double-spaced hills had 66.0 % ± 3.1 % stronger than those of square spacing at all height measurement. To lodge a hill into 20 cm to 40 cm from soil level, it required 346.7 g to 741.7 g in square spacing, and 555.2 g to 1149.2 g in double row spacing. Stronger hills in double row spacing seemed to correlate with a higher number of tiller and hills architecture; it requires further study in the role of both factors on the hill strength improvement. The present study recommends applying double row spacing to improve rice hill strength especially at a time with a high chance of lodging by strong wind incident.
“…However, it is not clear how these probabilities might vary in future. e only notable work in this field was by Martinez-Vasquez [27] who developed a lodging risk analysis building on the generalized lodging model [12] together with UKCP09 climate projector. However, due to lack of knowledge about the parameters required for the generalized lodging model for oats, the model used was not calibrated resulting in significant inaccuracies in the risk calculation.…”
This paper examines the impact that climate change may have on the lodging of oats in the Republic of Ireland and the UK. Through the consideration of a novel lodging model representing the motion of an oat plant due to the interaction of wind and rain and integrating future predictions of wind and rainfall due to climate change, appropriate conclusions have been made. In order to provide meteorological data for the lodging model, wind and rainfall inputs are analysed using 30 years’ time series corresponding to peak lodging months (June and July) from 38 meteorological stations in the United Kingdom and the Irish Republic, which enables the relevant probability density functions (PDFs) to be established. Moreover, climate data for the next six decades in the British Isles produced by UK climate change projections (UKCP18) are analysed, and future wind and rainfall PDFs are obtained. It is observed that the predicted changes likely to occur during the key growing period (June to July) in the next 30 years are in keeping with variations, which can occur due to different husbandry treatments/plant varieties. In addition, the utility of a double exponential function for representing the rainfall probability has been observed with appropriate values for the constants given.
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