The Potential Impact of Climate Change on Oat Lodging in the UK and Republic of Ireland

Abstract

This paper examines the impact that climate change may have on the lodging of oats in the Republic of Ireland and the UK. Through the consideration of a novel lodging model representing the motion of an oat plant due to the interaction of wind and rain and integrating future predictions of wind and rainfall due to climate change, appropriate conclusions have been made. In order to provide meteorological data for the lodging model, wind and rainfall inputs are analysed using 30 years’ time series corresponding to peak lodging months (June and July) from 38 meteorological stations in the United Kingdom and the Irish Republic, which enables the relevant probability density functions (PDFs) to be established. Moreover, climate data for the next six decades in the British Isles produced by UK climate change projections (UKCP18) are analysed, and future wind and rainfall PDFs are obtained. It is observed that the predicted changes likely to occur during the key growing period (June to July) in the next 30 years are in keeping with variations, which can occur due to different husbandry treatments/plant varieties. In addition, the utility of a double exponential function for representing the rainfall probability has been observed with appropriate values for the constants given.

Evaluation of lodging resistance in rice based on an optimized parameter from lodging index

“…This structure mechanically balances the grain weight, and far less bending moment is persistently applied to the culm like that in rice. Therefore, the lodging of wheat is caused due to the external bending moment applied by external forces, mainly the wind‐induced force (Baker et al., 2014; Mohammadi, Finnan, Baker, et al., 2020). Besides, the big flag leaf at the top of the rice helps to reduce the wind drag pressure, which is different from wheat too.…”

A calibrated oat lodging model compared with agronomic measurements

“…The occurrence of lodging is highly dependent on meteorological conditions and the risk of crop failure can be calculated by integrating joint (wind and rainfall) probability density functions (PDFs) (Mohammadi et al, 2018;Mohammadi et al, 2020;Sterling et al, 2018). Figure 2 shows a sample joint probability density function for Ireland using data from 1987 to 2016 for June and July.…”

Climate change and crop yield of oats (Avena sativa L.) in Yakutia

“…На территории России, в том числе и Якутии, в последние десятилетия отмечается рост температуры воздуха, в ряде регионов РФ снижается количество осадков, наблюдается увеличение частоты засух (Varlamov et al, 1998;Fedorov, Svinoboev, 2000;Skachkov, 2005;Malkova et al, 2011;A report on climate…, 2021;IPCC..., 2021). Изменение климата влияет на условия вегетации и хозяйственно ценные признаки многих культур, в том числе овса (Vidovic, Sochorcova, 2004;Novikova et al, 2013;Mohammadi et al, 2020;Kole et al, 2020).…”