Critical weather situations for renewable energies – Part B: Low stratus risk for solar power

Köhler, Carmen; Steiner, Andrea; Saint‐Drenan, Yves‐Marie; Ernst, D.; Bergmann-Dick, Anja; Zirkelbach, Mathias; Bouallègue, Zied Ben; Metzinger, Isabel; Ritter, Bodo

doi:10.1016/j.renene.2016.09.002

Cited by 50 publications

(40 citation statements)

References 30 publications

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“…Power grid stability can also be affected by fog and low stratus (LST) as photovoltaic power generation strongly depends on the cloudiness level. Fast changing fog and LST conditions are hardly predictable and frequently pose a challenge for maintaining grid stability [3]. All these factors lead to human casualties and financial losses that range on the same level as those linked to extreme weather conditions, such as tornadoes and hurricanes [4].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

A Hybrid Approach for Fog Retrieval Based on a Combination of Satellite and Ground Truth Data

2018

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Fog has a substantial influence on various ecosystems and it impacts economy, traffic systems and human life in many ways. In order to be able to deal with the large number of influence factors, a spatially explicit high-resoluted data set of fog frequency distribution is needed. In this study, a hybrid approach for fog retrieval based on Meteosat Second Generation (MSG) data and ground truth data is presented. The method is based on a random forest (RF) machine learning model that is trained with cloud base altitude (CBA) observations from Meteorological Aviation Routine Weather Reports (METAR) as well as synoptic weather observations (SYNOP). Fog is assumed where the model predicts CBA values below a dynamically derived threshold above the terrain elevation. Cross validation results show good accordance with observation data with a mean absolute error of 298 m in CBA values and an average Heidke Skill Score of 0.58 for fog occurrence. Using this technique, a 10 year fog baseline climatology with a temporal resolution of 15 min was derived for Europe for the period from 2006 to 2015. Spatial and temporal variations in fog frequency are analyzed. Highest average fog occurrences are observed in mountainous regions with maxima in spring and summer. Plains and lowlands show less overall fog occurrence but strong positive anomalies in autumn and winter.

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Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

A Hybrid Approach for Fog Retrieval Based on a Combination of Satellite and Ground Truth Data

2018

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“…In response to the ongoing rapid development of the solar energy sector, the capability of NWP models to predict observed solar shortwave (SW) radiation conditions at the surface has been put under scrutiny in recent studies (LaraFanego et al, 2012;Kosmopoulos et al, 2015;Federico et al, 2017). Taking a step further, NWP models are also being applied for predicting the "energy weather".…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…In case of solar energy, this means forecasting the potential solar photovoltaic energy production that corresponds to the weather conditions predicted by the NWP (e.g. Antonanzas et al, 2016;Köhler et al, 2017). For the development of the solar energetics, observational data of downwelling shortwave radiation at the surface (SWDS) distribution are increasingly needed and measurement stations are being set up globally.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Comparison of radiation parametrizations within the HARMONIE–AROME NWP model

Rontu

Lindfors

2018

Adv. Sci. Res.

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Abstract. Downwelling shortwave radiation at the surface (SWDS, global solar radiation flux), given by three different parametrization schemes, was compared to observations in the HARMONIE-AROME numerical weather prediction (NWP) model experiments over Finland in spring 2017. Simulated fluxes agreed well with each other and with the observations in the clear-sky cases. In the cloudy-sky conditions, all schemes tended to underestimate SWDS at the daily level, as compared to the measurements. Large local and temporal differences between the model results and observations were seen, related to the variations and uncertainty of the predicted cloud properties.The results suggest a possibility to benefit from the use of different radiative transfer parametrizations in a NWP model to obtain perturbations for the fine-resolution ensemble prediction systems. In addition, we recommend usage of the global radiation observations for the standard validation of the NWP models.

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“…) and destabilizes electricity grids by rapidly changing radiation conditions over photo‐voltaic installations (Köhler et al . ). Fog also modifies the radiation balance of the atmosphere due to its high albedo.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 97%

“…Besides its ecological impacts, it also has a direct influence on human life. For instance, fog often obstructs traffic on roads and airports (Bendix et al, 2011;Dietz et al, 2018;Kneringer et al, 2018) and destabilizes electricity grids by rapidly changing radiation conditions over photo-voltaic installations (Köhler et al, 2017). Fog also modifies the radiation balance of the atmosphere due to its high albedo.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

A spatially explicit and temporally highly resolved analysis of variations in fog occurrence over Europe

Egli

Thies

Bendix

2019

Quart J Royal Meteoro Soc

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Fog plays a major role in many ecological aspects and it influences human life in various ways. In this study, a temporally highly resolved and spatially explicit analysis of variations in fog occurrence was conducted for Europe and links to general weather conditions were investigated. To this end, a high‐resolution fog product based on Meteosat Second Generation data was developed. Characteristic fog distributions were identified by applying a Self Organizing Map approach to the dataset. It was found that the resulting fog patterns are primarily determined by terrain characteristics. Simultaneous occurrences between these patterns and the predominant general weather situations were analyzed. The results show that the general weather situations can be categorized into three main groups, each responsible for the formation of a different group of fog patterns. Additionally, distinct regional differences could be identified in the diurnal and annual fog frequency cycles and the derived region‐specific frequency variations were used to draw conclusions about the fog types prevailing in these regions.

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Critical weather situations for renewable energies – Part B: Low stratus risk for solar power

Cited by 50 publications

References 30 publications

A Hybrid Approach for Fog Retrieval Based on a Combination of Satellite and Ground Truth Data

A Hybrid Approach for Fog Retrieval Based on a Combination of Satellite and Ground Truth Data

Comparison of radiation parametrizations within the HARMONIE–AROME NWP model

A spatially explicit and temporally highly resolved analysis of variations in fog occurrence over Europe

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