Antarctica and the Southern Ocean are largely absent from the leading early works of classical geopolitics. While more recent works have embraced the southern hemisphere, their gaze rarely ventures toward the frozen south. We believe the time is ripe for classical analysis to be re-enlivened in Antarctic geopolitics, and in scenario analysis. In this chapter, we survey some of the key driving forces of Antarctic geopolitics, through a classical lens and across nine themes. From this snapshot, we observe that geopolitical driving forces tend to differ according to whether they are predetermined elements or critical uncertainties; whether they impel events or trends forward or constrain them; whether they instigate rivalry or promote cooperation; and whether they are endogenous or exogenous to the field in question. We suggest that unpacking our driving forces in this way provides us with a more nuanced understanding of how these factors are likely to behave within a scenario.
KeywordsAntarctic geopolitics • Disciplines of geopolitics • Driving forces of geopolitics • Driving forces of Antarctic geopolitics • Dynamic signature of driving forces • Scenario planning challenges
OverviewIn this chapter, we shift our focus away from scenario approaches and toward the factors likely to drive and shape future state activity in Antarctica. As we saw in Chap. 4, these driving forces are the core elements that move scenario narratives forward, and influence how we formulate and handle geopolitical issues within them. If we are to understand how driving forces work within a scenario narrative, we need to grasp their origins and dynamics. In this chapter, we will consider both. If our scenarios are to be plausible, rigorous, and robust, then our list of driving forces needs to be comprehensive and prioritised strategically, with key causal relationships between them identified. To be comprehensive, we propose that it helps to look at our subject matter through the lenses of nine themes: