Critical Commentary: The city and the virus

Abstract

Cities around the world are the epicentres of the coronavirus pandemic: both in the first wave, as the disease spread from East Asia, and now, as many countries enter a third wave of infections. These spatial patterns are still far from properly understood, though there is no shortage of possible explanations. I set out the emerging theories about cities’ role in the spread of coronavirus, testing these against existing studies and new analysis for English conurbations, cities and towns. Both reveal an urbanised public health crisis, in which vulnerabilities and health impacts track (a) urban structural inequalities, and (b) wider weaknesses in institutions, their capabilities and leaders. I then turn to ‘post-pandemic’ visions of future cities. I argue that this framing is unhelpful: even with mass vaccination, COVID-19 is likely to remain one of many globalised endemic diseases. Instead, ‘pandemic-resilient’ urban places will require improved economic, social and physical infrastructure, alongside better public policy. Describing such future cities is still highly speculative: I identify five zones of change.

Critical Commentary: Cities in a post-COVID world

“…Nonetheless, early analyses argued that the density of first-hit places was a fundamental driver of infection. Nathan (2020) contends, correctly in our view, that this is an ecological fallacy. There has been a weakening relationship between density and infection rates over time.…”

Institutions and the uneven geography of the first wave of the COVID‐19 pandemic

“…Large, dense, rich, and accessible European cities have therefore been regarded as a hotbed for the spread of coronavirus. But the role of these factors—and, especially, density—for the expansion and incidence of the disease has been challenged (e.g., Florida & Mellander, 2020; Hamidi et al, 2020; Nathan, 2020). Density may have influenced the timing of early outbreaks but has had less of an influence in COVID‐19‐related mortality over time (Carozzi et al, 2020).…”

Planning for social distancing: How the legacy of historical epidemics shaped COVID-19's spread in Madrid

“…During the first months of the COVID-19 pandemic, the spread of the virus was related to the international connectivity of cities, urban size, public transport, urban density, housing characteristics, overcrowding and the polarisation of the labour market between teleworkers and essential workers ( Nathan, 2021 ). However, much subsequent research, including a special issue of Urban Studies ( Duminy, 2021 ; Kawlra and Sakamoto, 2021 ; McFarlane, 2021 ; Preece et al, 2021 ), has shown that inequality was a major factor in spreading the pandemic.…”

“…Vulnerability was a major factor in the first waves of the COVID-19 pandemic ( Almagro and Orane-Hutchinson, 2022 ; Nathan, 2021 ). In Madrid, the inner suburbs saw more pandemic cases ( Glodeanu et al, 2021 ; Gómez Giménez, 2020 ; Marí-Dell’Olmo et al, 2021 ; Menéndez and Higueras García, 2020 ).…”