Cracking an Open Safe: Uncertainty in HAZUS-Based Seismic Vulnerability Functions

Porter, Keith

doi:10.1193/1.3459153

Cited by 22 publications

(11 citation statements)

References 6 publications

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“…It is observed that COV tends to decrease with increase in MDR, a similar trend also observed elsewhere [55], and there is little dependence on the magnitude of earthquakes. On the other hand the standard deviation is found to behave differently where initially the standard deviation increases with increasing MDR, as observed elsewhere [55], up to certain level but then tends to saturate when the MDR gets very higher. The values of COV and standard deviation at a given MDR are different than the reported one [55].…”

Section: Uncertainties In Mdrsupporting

confidence: 86%

“…On the other hand the standard deviation is found to behave differently where initially the standard deviation increases with increasing MDR, as observed elsewhere [55], up to certain level but then tends to saturate when the MDR gets very higher. The values of COV and standard deviation at a given MDR are different than the reported one [55]. It is worth mentioning that other reported findings [55] are for different regions and structural systems which gives an indication that COV and standard deviation in loss estimation studies are structural and regional dependent.…”

Section: Uncertainties In Mdrsupporting

confidence: 72%

“…The mean prediction for seismic risk can reasonably predict the observed response during earthquake, as observed in the previous section. Nevertheless, considerable uncertainties can result in loss estimation for a given region considering a single scenario earthquake [54] and/or fragility functions [55]. The present methodology is capable of providing analytical estimate of the uncertainties expected in the regional seismic risk assessment.…”

Section: Uncertainties In Mdrmentioning

confidence: 99%

See 2 more Smart Citations

Developing Seismic Risk Prediction Functions for Structures

Ahmad

Ali

Adil

et al. 2018

Shock and Vibration

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The paper presents the development of a nonlinear static displacement-based methodology for seismic risk assessment and loss estimation of stone masonry building stock of Pakistan. Experimental investigation of one-third scaled model, tested on shake table, is performed in order to obtain lateral strength and drift limits for stone masonry and develop damage scale for performance-based assessment. Prototype buildings are designed respecting the existing building stock and investigated through nonlinear static and dynamic time history analyses. Nonlinear static mechanical models, for both global and local vulnerabilities, are developed for the considered typology which are used to derive analytical structure-dependent fragility functions considering expected sources of uncertainties explicitly in contrary to the conventional procedures. Furthermore, seismic risk assessment is performed for different scenario earthquakes and presented in terms of structure-independent fragility functions to estimate the mean damage ratio, the repair cost as a fraction of replacement cost, and casualties, with the dispersion being quantified, given source-to-site distance and magnitude for an earthquake event. The methodology is tested for seismic risk assessment of the considered typology in recent 2005 Kashmir earthquake, which is reasonably predicted. Future development of the methodology is required with additional experimental tests on rubble stone masonry material in order to increase confidence in future applications.

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Section: Uncertainties In Mdrsupporting

confidence: 86%

Section: Uncertainties In Mdrsupporting

confidence: 72%

Section: Uncertainties In Mdrmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Developing Seismic Risk Prediction Functions for Structures

Ahmad

Ali

Adil

et al. 2018

Shock and Vibration

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“…However, there is not any information in HAZUS related to a dispersion measure. Porter [2010] proposed a method for the determination of loss coefficient of variation (COV) using the expected value information provided by HAZUS. To determine the COV for the structure in consideration, engineers can obtain guidance from professional cost estimators .…”

Section: Loss Analysismentioning

confidence: 99%

PEER Performance-Based Earthquake Engineering Methodology, Revisited

Günay

Mosalam

2013

Journal of Earthquake Engineering

213

104

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A performance-based earthquake engineering (PBEE) methodology was developed at the Pacific Earthquake Engineering Research (PEER) Center. The method is based on explicit determination of performance, e.g., monetary losses, in a probabilistic manner where uncertainties in earthquake ground motion, structural response, damage, and losses are explicitly considered. There is an increasing trend towards use of probabilistic performance-based design (PPBD) methods in practice. Therefore, the International Federation for Structural Concrete (fib) initiated a task group to disseminate PPBD methods. This article is a contribution to this task group summarizing and demonstrating the PEER PBEE methodology in a useful manner to practicing engineers.

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“…Although initial studies on the generation of fragility curves for bridges in California were focused on empirical fragility curves (Shinozuka et al 2000), fragility curves have been generated using extensive numerical analyses over the last decades (Basöz and Mander 1999;Brandenberg et al 2011;Gardoni et al 2002;HAZUS-MH 2003;Huo and Zhang 2013;Mackie and Stojadinovic 2001;Mangalathu 2017;Mangalathu and Jeon 2018;Mangalathu et al 2018a;Ramanathan 2012;Zhong et al 2009). Although HAZUS is the only document, which suggests fragility relationships for all the bridge classes in California, the HAZUS methodology and fragility relationships are criticized by recent researches (Mangalathu et al 2017b;Porter 2010;Ramanathan 2012). The downside of the above cited studies is that the studies did not address the effect of near-fault (NF) and far-field (FF) ground motions separately.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Skew Adjustment Factors for Fragilities of California Box-Girder Bridges Subjected to near-Fault and Far-Field Ground Motions

2019

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Past reconnaissance studies revealed that bridges close to active faults are more susceptible to damage and more than 60% of the bridges in California are skewed. To assess the combined effect of near-fault ground motions and skewness, this paper evaluates the seismic vulnerability of skewed concrete box-girder bridges in California subjected to near-fault and far-field ground motions. The relative risk of skewness and fault-location on the bridges is evaluated by developing fragility curves of bridge components and system accounting for the material, geometric, and structural uncertainties. It is noted that the skewness and bridge site close to active faults make bridges more vulnerable, and the existing modification factor in HAZUS cannot capture the variation in the median value of the fragilities appropriately. A new set of fragility adjustment factors for skewness coupled with the effect of fault location is suggested in this paper.

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Cracking an Open Safe: Uncertainty in HAZUS-Based Seismic Vulnerability Functions

Cited by 22 publications

References 6 publications

Developing Seismic Risk Prediction Functions for Structures

Developing Seismic Risk Prediction Functions for Structures

PEER Performance-Based Earthquake Engineering Methodology, Revisited

Skew Adjustment Factors for Fragilities of California Box-Girder Bridges Subjected to near-Fault and Far-Field Ground Motions

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