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Around the world, a large percentage of buildings in regions of high seismicity are older, nonductile reinforced concrete. To assess the risk posed by these buildings, fragility functions are required to define the likelihood that these buildings will sustain damage and collapse under earthquake loading. This paper presents the initial phase of a research effort to develop fragility functions for non-ductile concrete frames using numerical simulation; the research presented in this paper focuses on development of the numerical model and application of the model to develop fragility functions for a prototype non-ductile concrete frame. To enable numerical simulation of concrete frame buildings, response models for beam-column joints and columns are developed to provide (1) appropriate simulation of component response and, thereby, reliable assessment of risk and (2) computational efficiency and robustness. These new models are developed using existing experimental data, build on response models proposed by others, and employ component and material models available in the OpenSees analysis platform (http://opensees.berkeley.edu). A new beam-column joint model combines a new expression for joint strength and newly developed cyclic response parameters; a new column response model includes a new shear-strength model and newly developed cyclic response parameters. Numerical models of a prototype non-ductile concrete frame are developed that include simulation of one or more of the following characteristics: (1) rigid beam-column joint, (2) nonlinear joint shear response, (3) nonlinear joint shear and bond-slip response, and (4) column shear failure. Dynamic analyses are performed using these frame models and a suite of ground motions; analysis results are used to develop fragility curves. Fragility curves quantify the vulnerability of the frame and provide understanding of the impact of different component failure mechanisms on frame vulnerability.

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Summary Current seismic design codes and damage estimation tools neglect the influence of successive events on structures. However, recent earthquakes have demonstrated that structures damaged during an initial event (mainshock) are more vulnerable to severe damage and collapse during a subsequent event (aftershock). This increased vulnerability to damage translates to increased likelihood of loss of use, property, and life. Thus, a reliable risk assessment tool is required that characterizes the risk of the undamaged structure subjected to an initial event and the risk of the damaged structure under subsequent events. In this paper, a framework for development of aftershock fragilities is presented; these aftershock fragilities define the likelihood that a building damaged during a mainshock will exhibit a given damage state following one or more aftershocks. Thus, the framework provides a method for characterizing the risk associated with damage accumulation in the structure. The framework includes the following: (i) creation of a numerical model of the structure; (ii) characterization of building damage states; (iii) generation of a suite of mainshock–aftershocks; (iv) mainshock–aftershock analyses; and (v) development of aftershock fragility curves using probabilistic aftershock demand models, defined as a linear regression of aftershock demand–intensity pairs in a logarithmic space, and damage‐state prediction models. The framework is not limited to a specific structure type but requires numerical models defining structural response and linking structural response with damage. In the current study, non‐ductile RC frames (low‐rise, mid‐rise, and high‐rise) are selected as case studies for the application of the framework. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.