COVID-19 vaccination uptake strongly predicts averted deaths of older people across Europe

Abstract

Background: Nationwide COVID-19 (coronavirus disease 2019) vaccination campaigns have been effective to avert as many as 51% deaths in people aged ≥60 years in the European region between December 2020 and November 2021, though broad heterogeneity has been observed in the percentage of averted deaths across the different European countries. Methods: We downloaded data of vaccine uptake and efficacy into an Excel Worksheet, and we then performed univariate (Spearman’s correlation) and multivariate (multiple linear regression analysis) correlations.Results: A significant linear association was found between the percentage of averted deaths of older people and percentage of vaccine uptake in each corresponding European country (Spearman’s correlation: r=0.872; p<0.001), though such relationship was even better fitted by using an exponential curve (r=0.881; p<0.001). In multiple linear regression analysis, the percentage of deaths averted by COVID-19 vaccination remained independently associated with vaccine uptake (p<0.001), but not with the type of vaccine administered (p=0.264).Conclusions: The results of analysis support the foremost importance of reinforcing nationwide COVID-19 vaccination campaigns, especially in those countries where vaccination programmes have been less successful.

SARS-CoV-2 Vaccination Coverage and Key Public Health Indicators May Explain Disparities in COVID-19 Country-Specific Case Fatality Rate Within European Economic Area

“…Other parameters, such as medical [ 7 ], genetic [ 8 ], environmental [ 9 ], physical [ 10 , 11 ], mental/psychological [ 12 ], social [ 13 ], economical [ 14 ], and political [ 15 ], whose effect cannot be precisely determined, at least at an individual level, are believed to contribute to country-specific CFR disparities. Last, concerning vaccination for SARS-CoV-2, it has been reported that vaccination uptake is closely associated with elderly people saved, independently of the vaccine type administered [ 16 ]. Emerging data further support the efficacy and effectiveness of COVID-19 vaccines in terms of public health consequences [ 17 ].…”

What we talk about when we talk about COVID-19 vaccination campaign impact: a narrative review

“…Mattiuzzi et al ( 36 ) measure the association between the percentage of averted deaths of older people and the percentage of vaccine uptake in each corresponding European country. The authors used data on vaccine uptake and efficacy to perform univariate (Spearman’s correlation) and multivariate (multiple linear regression analysis) correlations to determine the association of the percentage of averted deaths with vaccine uptake and the type of vaccine administered.…”

“…Usually, the National Ministry of Health and the Centers for Diseases Control are the main sources of these data. Nonetheless, depending on the approaches applied, other sources (secondary data) are also considered, as in Mattiuzzi et al ( 36 ), which used the data produced by Meslé et al ( 20 ).…”

“…It is important to note that a comparative analysis between studies is hampered by the different ways the impacts of vaccination processes are presented. Most studies estimated the impact in terms of averted COVID-19 deaths ( 20 , 25 , 26 , 28 , 32–34 , 36 , 37 ), and some of them also analyzed the averted hospitalizations (and severe hospitalizations) ( 24–26 , 28 , 34 , 37 ). Other studies investigated the COVID-19 incidence seeking to estimate the reduction in the number of cases ( 19 , 21 , 28 , 29 , 34 , 38 ).…”