Objective The aim of the study is to analyze the latent class of basic reproduction number (R 0 ) trend of 2019 novel coronavirus disease in major endemic areas of China.
MethodsThe provinces that reported more than 500 cases of COVID-19 till February 18, 2020 were selected as the major endemic area. The Verhulst model was used to fit the growth rate of cumulative confirmed cases. The R 0 of COVID-19 was calculated using the parameters of severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) and COVID-19, respectively. The latent class of R 0 was analyzed using a latent profile analysis model. Results The median R 0 calculated from SARS and COVID-19 parameters were 1.84 -3.18 and 1.74 -2.91, respectively. The R 0 calculated from the SARS parameters was greater than that of calculated from the COVID-19 parameters (Z = -4.782 --4.623, P < 0.01). Both R 0 can be divided into three latent classes. The initial value of R 0 in class 1 (Shandong Province, Sichuan Province and Chongqing Municipality) was relatively low and decreases slowly. The initial value of R 0 in class 2 (Anhui Province, Hunan Province, Jiangxi Province, Henan Province, Zhejiang Province, Guangdong Province and Jiangsu Province) was relatively high and decreases rapidly. Moreover, the initial value of R 0 of class 3 (Hubei Province) was between that of class 1 and class 2, but the higher level of R 0 lasts longer and decreases slowly. Conclusion The results indicated that overall trend of R 0 has been falling with the strengthening of China's comprehensive prevention and control measures for COVID-19, however,
EpidemiologyOverall, we found that the R 0 of COVID-19 shows a downward trend in major endemic areas in China, and there are regional differences (three latent classes). Actively adopting combined prevention and control measures in the early stages of the epidemic can effectively control COVID-19.
Author contributionsFangbiao TAO designed the study. Honglv XU took primary responsibility for writing the manuscript, managed the literature searches and analyses, and undertook the statistical analysis.