COVID-19 Spread in Saudi Arabia: Modeling, Simulation and Analysis

Alrasheed, Hend; Althnian, Alhanoof; Kurdi, Heba; Al-Mgren, Heila; Alharbi, Sulaiman Ali

doi:10.3390/ijerph17217744

Cited by 32 publications

(29 citation statements)

References 70 publications

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“…Regarding after lockdown, we notice that the

values is below one which proves the effectiveness of the lockdowns as measures. This is in agreement with the findings in [32] for KSA. Though, the situation has rapidly changed with more recent data as we shall see in next Section 6.3.…”

Section: Resultssupporting

confidence: 93%

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A multi-stage SEIR model to predict the potential of a new COVID-19 wave in KSA after lifting all travel restrictions

Khedher¹,

Kolsi²,

Alsaif³

2021

Alexandria Engineering Journal

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The complete lifting of travel restrictions to KSA takes place after 3rd of January 2021.There are fears that KSA will confront a new COVID-19 wave, especially when the most of countries that resumed the international flights are suffering now from the second surge. Fortunately, more than one Covid-19 Vaccine have been rolled out. However, herd immunity could be reached only through widespread vaccination. COVID-19 vaccines need more time to be properly protective, especially in front of people refusing to get vaccinated. A modified multi-stage SEIR model, with distinct reproductive numbers corresponding to before and after lockdown is employed to predict the potential of a new pandemic wave. First, the two-stage model employed to find the best fitting for the reproductive numbers. Then, the model is extended to three-stage one to investigate the relaxation. However, the modified model detects a second wave in early stage from 28th May to 17th June 2020 before even succeeding controlling the first outbreak. Subsequently, the four-stage SEIR model is used to predict the end of the second wave. Moreover, the model is employed to test the potential of a new pandemic surge after the international flights are resumed.

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“…Regarding after lockdown, we notice that the

Section: Resultssupporting

confidence: 93%

“…

represent the situation for about one week before to the lockdown. The pre-lockdown

value in Table 2 is consistent with results found in the literature [32] , [33] . Regarding after lockdown, we notice that the

values is below one which proves the effectiveness of the lockdowns as measures.…”

Section: Resultssupporting

confidence: 90%

A multi-stage SEIR model to predict the potential of a new COVID-19 wave in KSA after lifting all travel restrictions

Khedher¹,

Kolsi²,

Alsaif³

2021

Alexandria Engineering Journal

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“…Alrasheed et al, [24] built a network simulation model of the spread of COVID-19 in Saudi Arabia using SIR model. A set of attributes such as age, gender, nationality and location are defined for nodes in network simulation.…”

Section: Related Workmentioning

confidence: 99%

Modeling and Simulation: A study on predicting the outbreak of COVID-19 in Saudi Arabia

Msmali

Mutum

Mechai

et al. 2021

Preprint

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The novel coronavirus (Covid-19) infection has resulted in an ongoing pandemic affecting health system and economy of more than 200 countries around the world. Mathematical models are used to predict the biological and epidemiological trends of an epidemic and develop methods for controlling it. In this work, we use mathematical model perspective to study the role of behavior change in slowing the spread of the COVID-19 disease in Saudi Arabia. The real-time updated data from 1st May 2020 to 8th January 2021 is collected from Saudi Ministry of Health, aiming to provide dynamic behaviors of the pandemic in Saudi Arabia. During this period, it has infected 297,205 people, resulting in 6124 deaths with the mortality rate 2.06 %. There is weak positive relationship between the spread of the infection and mortality (R2 =0.412). We use Susceptible-Exposed-Infection-Recovered (SEIR) mode, the logistic growth model and with special focus on the exposed, infection and recovery individuals to simulate the final phase of the outbreak. The results indicate that social distancing, good hygienic conditions, and travel limitation are the crucial measures to prevent further spreading of the epidemic.

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“…To curtail the uncontrolled spread of Covid-19 among the population, the Saudi government introduced strict limitations on social gatherings, cultural activities, and other forms of close contact. The Muslim state resorted to completely closing mosques to minimize potential human-to-human transmissions [ 11 ]. The effectiveness of Saudi Arabia’s anti-Covid-19 efforts is evidenced by the rapid decline in new cases and deaths by early summer 2020 [ 3 ].…”

Section: Literature Reviewmentioning

confidence: 99%

Economic Role of Population Density during Pandemics—A Comparative Analysis of Saudi Arabia and China

Yusuf

Shesha

2021

IJERPH

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As a novel infection with relatively high contagiousness, the coronavirus disease emerged as the most pertinent threat to the global community in the twenty-first century. Due to Covid-19’s severe economic impacts, the establishment of reliable determining factors can help to alleviate future pandemics. While a population density is often cited as a major determinant of infectious cases and mortality rates, there are both proponents and opponents to this claim. In this framework, the study seeks to assess the role of population density as a predictor of Covid-19 cases and deaths in Saudi Arabia and China during the Covid-19 pandemic. With high infectivity and mortality being a definitive characteristic of overpopulated regions, the authors propose that Henry Kissinger’s population reduction theory can be applied as a control measure to control future pandemics and alleviate social concerns. If high-density Chinese regions are more susceptible to Covid-19 than low-density Saudi cities, the authors argue that Neo-Malthusian models can be used as a basis for reducing the impacts of the coronavirus disease on the economic growth in countries with low population density. However, the performed correlation analysis and simple linear regression produced controversial results with no clear connection between the three studied variables. By assessing population density as a determinant of health crises associated with multiple socio-economic threats and epidemiological concerns, the authors seek to reinvigorate the scholarly interest in Neo-Malthusian models as a long-term solution intended to mitigate future disasters. The authors recommend that future studies should explore additional confounding factors influencing the course and severity of infectious diseases in states with different population densities.

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COVID-19 Spread in Saudi Arabia: Modeling, Simulation and Analysis

Cited by 32 publications

References 70 publications

A multi-stage SEIR model to predict the potential of a new COVID-19 wave in KSA after lifting all travel restrictions

A multi-stage SEIR model to predict the potential of a new COVID-19 wave in KSA after lifting all travel restrictions

Modeling and Simulation: A study on predicting the outbreak of COVID-19 in Saudi Arabia

Economic Role of Population Density during Pandemics—A Comparative Analysis of Saudi Arabia and China

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