The novel coronavirus (Covid-19) infection has resulted in an ongoing pandemic affecting health system and economy of more than 200 countries around the world. Mathematical models are used to predict the biological and epidemiological trends of an epidemic and develop methods for controlling it. In this work, we use mathematical model perspective to study the role of behavior change in slowing the spread of the COVID-19 disease in Saudi Arabia. The real-time updated data from 1st May 2020 to 8th January 2021 is collected from Saudi Ministry of Health, aiming to provide dynamic behaviors of the pandemic in Saudi Arabia. During this period, it has infected 297,205 people, resulting in 6124 deaths with the mortality rate 2.06 %. There is weak positive relationship between the spread of the infection and mortality (R2 =0.412). We use Susceptible-Exposed-Infection-Recovered (SEIR) mode, the logistic growth model and with special focus on the exposed, infection and recovery individuals to simulate the final phase of the outbreak. The results indicate that social distancing, good hygienic conditions, and travel limitation are the crucial measures to prevent further spreading of the epidemic.
The novel coronavirus diseases (COVID-19) has resulted in an ongoing pandemic affecting the health system and devastating impact on global economy. The virus has been found in human feces, in sewage and in wastewater treatment plants. We highlight the transmission behavior, occurrence, and persistence of coronavirus in sewage and wastewater treatment plants. Our approach is to follow in the process of identifying a coronavirus hotspot through existing wastewater plants in major cities of Saudi Arabia. The mathematical distributions including log-normal distribution, Gaussian model and susceptible-exposed-infection-recovered-(SEIR) model are adopted to predict the coronavirus load in wastewater plants. This paper highlights not only the potential virus removal techniques from wastewater treatment plants but also to facilitate tracing of SARS-CoV-2 virus in human through wastewater treatment plants.
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