Covid-19, Shelter-In Place Strategies and Tipping

Abstract

Support for this research comes from the Alfred P. Sloan Foundation and the Wharton Risk Management and Decision Processes Center. The views expressed herein are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views of the National Bureau of Economic Research. NBER working papers are circulated for discussion and comment purposes. They have not been peer-reviewed or been subject to the review by the NBER Board of Directors that accompanies official NBER publications.

Zoomshock: The Geography and Local Labour Market Consequences of Working from Home

“…Evidence on the effectiveness of policies during COVID-19 has so far been mixed. Cui et al (2020) and show that payroll tax mitigation and deferral of social insurance contributions in China bolstered the ability of firms to weather the economic downturn. However, Guerrieri et al…”

“…Recently published volumes such as Baldwin and di Mauro (2020) have reviewed the range of emerging policy responses to COVID-19 and provided advice on how policy frameworks should evolve -although most of the focus has been on high-income economies and China. Authors such as Cororaton and Rosen (2020), Granja et al (2020), De Marco (2020, Kozeniauskas et al (2020), andCui et al (2020) have focused on the reach and targeting of specific programs in China, Italy, Portugal, and the US. Additionally, this paper contributes to the emerging literature by authors including Chetty et al (2020), Granja et al (2020, ?, and Cui et al (2020) that have provided some early evidence on the effectiveness of programs to help firms weather the impacts of the pandemic in the same countries, as well as previous studies such as De Mel et al (2012) and Bruhn (2020) that focused on experimental and quasi-experimental evidence from previous crises in Sri Lanka and Mexico.…”

“…Analysis of JP Morgan Chase data (Cox et al, 2020;Farrell et al, 2020) has described in detail how household balance sheets have changed as a result of the COVID-19 recession and how households have responded to fiscal stimulus. A variety of studies have examined the effects of the first set of lockdowns on economic behavior and evaluating the degree to which there are trade-offs between policy interventions attempting to contain the virus and economic damage Beach et al, 2020;Barro et al, 2020;Correia et al, 2020;Cui et al, 2020;Dave et al, 2020;Friedson et al, 2020;Hacioglu et al, 2020;Hall et al, 2020;Lilley et al, 2020;Miles et al, 2020;Jones et al, 2020;Toxvaerd, 2020;Wang, 2020).…”

Direct and Spillover Effects from Staggered Adoption of Health Policies: Evidence from COVID-19 Stay-at-Home Orders

“…A similar mechanism can apply to local authorities deciding on NPI implementation with respect to neighboring jurisdictions, with a potential spillover effect from residents of the late-adopter to the early-adopter. Cui et al (2020) model how the policy of one state influences the incentives that other states face to adopt similar policies. If enough states engage in social distancing, they will tip others to do the same by shifting the Nash equilibrium with respect to the number of states engaging in costly social distancing.…”

A Literature Review of the Economics of Covid-19

“…Jinjarak et al (2020)). Appealing to a game theoretic approach, Cui et al (2020) argue that states sharing economic ties will be "tipped" to reach a Nash equilibrium, whereby all other states comply with shelter-in-place policies. 16 Social distancing policy determinants have been linked to political party characteristics, political beliefs, and partisan differences Murray and Murray, 2020).…”