COVID-19 pandemic in west Africa

Martínez-Álvarez, Melisa; Jarde, Alexander; Usuf, Effua; Brotherton, Helen; Bittaye, Mustapha; Samateh, Ahmadou Lamin; Antonio, Martín; Vives-Tomas, Joan; D’Alessandro, Umberto; Roca, Anna

doi:10.1016/s2214-109x(20)30123-6

Cited by 185 publications

(183 citation statements)

References 2 publications

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“…While there have been attempts elsewhere in capturing the trajectory of the COVID-19 pandemic using agent-based, or mathematical, and or statistical models, this has not been the case for the African region as whole. (4)(5)(6)8) To the best of our knowledge, no study, using a robust methodology, provides estimates on future trend of COVID-19 for the entire region or accounts for its local context.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…(4)(5)(6) NPIs directly influence the course of the COVID-19 pandemic, including the rate of spread, and the expected duration of the pandemic. However, several characteristics of the virus remain ambiguous or mostly unknown, (7)(8) such as the incubation period (the time between infection and symptom onset), serial interval (the time between symptom onset of a primary and secondary case) the extent of asymptomatic cases, the possibility of pre-symptomatic infectiousness, the case fatality rate (CFR), and also the possible role of weather in transmission. Estimates for COVID-19 CFR range from 0.3-1%.…”

mentioning

confidence: 99%

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COVID-19 pandemic in the African continent: Forecasts of cumulative cases, new infections, and mortality

Achoki

Alam

Were

et al. 2020

Preprint

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Background:The epidemiology of COVID-19 remains speculative in Africa. To the best of our knowledge, no study, using robust methodology provides its trajectory for the region or accounts for local context. This paper is the first systematic attempt to provide prevalence, incidence, and mortality estimates across Africa.Methods: Caseloads and incidence forecasts are from a co-variate-based instrumental variable regression model. Fatality rates from Italy and China were applied to generate mortality estimates after making relevant health system and population-level characteristics related adjustments between each of the African countries.Results: By June 30 2020, around 16.3 million people in Africa will contract 403 to 98,358,799). Northern and Eastern Africa will be the most and least areas affected. Cumulative cases on June 30 are expected to reach around 2.9 million (95% CI 465,028 to 18,286,358) in Southern Africa, 2.8 million (95% CI 517,489 to 15,056,314) in Western Africa, and 1.2 million (95% CI 229,111 to 6,138,692) in Central Africa. Incidence for the month of April 2020 is expected to be highest in Djibouti, 32.8 per 1000 (95% CI 6.25 to 171.77), while Morocco will experience among the highest fatalities (1,045 deaths, 95% CI 167 to 6,547). Conclusion:Less urbanized countries with low levels of socio-economic development (hence least connected to the world), are likely to register lower and slower transmissions at the early stages of an epidemic. However, the same enabling factors that worked for their benefit can hinder interventions that have lessened the impact of COVID-19 elsewhere.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

mentioning

confidence: 99%

COVID-19 pandemic in the African continent: Forecasts of cumulative cases, new infections, and mortality

Achoki

Alam

Were

et al. 2020

Preprint

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“…There is a debate on the reason for lower number of cases and deaths. Some of speculations are relatively lower testing rates, poor reporting habits and lower number of passengers coming to continents [5][6][7][8]. However nothing can spare Africa from casualty but preparation and on time response.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Magnitude and associated factors for attitude and practice of Southern Ethiopian residents toward COVID-19 and its preventions: A community based cross sectional study

Mola

Aweke

Jemal

et al. 2020

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Background: COVID-19 first broke out in china, Hubei province on December 29, 2019. Since then it took more than hundred thousand lives worldwide. Although all countries are taking varying degree of measures to curb the dissemination, the virus is still spreading rapidly in all part of the world. Adherence of peoples for COVID-19 precautions measures is one of the most important factors which determine the effectiveness of curbing the spread. However without having good attitude adherence of people toward precaution measures could be challenging. Therefore the aim of this study is to assess the attitude, practice and associated factors of southern Ethiopian residents toward COVID-19 and its prevention. Methods: A community based cross sectional study was conducted among 585 Southern Ethiopian residents. Bivariate and multivariate binary logistic regression was used to determine association between dependent and independent variables. Adjusted odds ratio with their 95% CI was used show the strength of association. P-value < 0.05 was used to decide statistically significant association.Result: Most of the study participants (90.3%) have good attitude toward COVID-19 and its prevention. Being younger age group, having chronic medical illness, using television as a source of information and having good knowledge were significantly associated with good attitude toward COVID-19.On other hand; only 20% of the study participants have good practice toward COVID-19 prevention. Educational status, occupation and having chronic medical illness, uses of religious teaching as information sources are associated factors for good practice against COVID-19 infection. Conclusion: We conclude that despite the presence good attitude in majority of respondents much work needed to improve rare practice of COVID-19 preventive measures.

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“…Comparable to countries in Africa with weaker health systems, 5 the Philippines is in a precarious situation. Following outbreaks of dengue, diphtheria, measles and polio in 2019 6 the challenge of mounting disease control campaigns in 2020 will be increasingly difficult.…”

Section: Concerns About Domino Effectsmentioning

confidence: 98%

Challenges in Controlling SARS-CoV-2 in a Lower-middle Income Country and the Potential Unintended Effects due to Aggressive Restrictions

Lau¹,

Wu²,

Go³

et al. 2020

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COVID-19 pandemic in west Africa

Cited by 185 publications

References 2 publications

COVID-19 pandemic in the African continent: Forecasts of cumulative cases, new infections, and mortality

COVID-19 pandemic in the African continent: Forecasts of cumulative cases, new infections, and mortality

Magnitude and associated factors for attitude and practice of Southern Ethiopian residents toward COVID-19 and its preventions: A community based cross sectional study

Challenges in Controlling SARS-CoV-2 in a Lower-middle Income Country and the Potential Unintended Effects due to Aggressive Restrictions

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