COVID-19 pandemic in the African continent: Forecasts of cumulative cases, new infections, and mortality

Abstract

Background:The epidemiology of COVID-19 remains speculative in Africa. To the best of our knowledge, no study, using robust methodology provides its trajectory for the region or accounts for local context. This paper is the first systematic attempt to provide prevalence, incidence, and mortality estimates across Africa.Methods: Caseloads and incidence forecasts are from a co-variate-based instrumental variable regression model. Fatality rates from Italy and China were applied to generate mortality estimates after making relevant health system and population-level characteristics related adjustments between each of the African countries.Results: By June 30 2020, around 16.3 million people in Africa will contract 403 to 98,358,799). Northern and Eastern Africa will be the most and least areas affected. Cumulative cases on June 30 are expected to reach around 2.9 million (95% CI 465,028 to 18,286,358) in Southern Africa, 2.8 million (95% CI 517,489 to 15,056,314) in Western Africa, and 1.2 million (95% CI 229,111 to 6,138,692) in Central Africa. Incidence for the month of April 2020 is expected to be highest in Djibouti, 32.8 per 1000 (95% CI 6.25 to 171.77), while Morocco will experience among the highest fatalities (1,045 deaths, 95% CI 167 to 6,547). Conclusion:Less urbanized countries with low levels of socio-economic development (hence least connected to the world), are likely to register lower and slower transmissions at the early stages of an epidemic. However, the same enabling factors that worked for their benefit can hinder interventions that have lessened the impact of COVID-19 elsewhere.

Response strategies for COVID-19 epidemics in African settings: a mathematical modelling study

“…Although several studies have looked at the spread of COVID-19 in African countries [34][35][36][37][38] , we are only aware of one other modelling study which considers the impact of different interventions on the spread of COVID-19 in Africa. Walker et al 39 used a similar SEIR model and predicted a near 90% reduction in cases for sub-Saharan Africa assuming a 75% reduction in contacts starting at an incidence of 0.2 deaths per 100,000 population per week and sustained over the first 250 days of an epidemic.…”

Modeling and Forecasting of COVID-19 New Cases in Top 10 Infected African Countries 

“…new cases data have fitted the ARIMA (0,1,0), ARIMA (0,1,0), and ARIMA (0,1,14) models, increase from April to May and a 39% increase from May to June, which suggests a possible slowing down of the pandemic with time [5].…”

“…As of 6 September 2020 at 1:00 pm, 27,087,151 total cases of COVID-19 have been reported, including 884,110 total deaths with a 3.3% fatality rate and 19,208,336 total recovered with a 70.9% recovered rate and also 6,994,705 active cases with a 25.8% rate as Worldometers information provided globally. In Africa, as this report showed that the total cases were 1,297,434 with 4.8% covered from the world, total deaths were 31,131 with a 2.4% of fatality rate, totally recovered was 1,033,859 with a 79.7% of recovery rate, and active cases was 232,444 with 17.9% rate [3][4][5]. And, the current Worldometer information statistics were summarized clearly in table 1 below.…”

“…The other countries that have reported large numbers of cases were Egypt 7.7 % (99,712), Morocco 5.4% (70,160), Ethiopia 4.4% (57,466), Nigeria 4.2% (54,905), Algeria 3.6% (46,071), Ghana 3.5% (44,777), Kenya 2.7% (35, 020), Cameroon 1.5% (19,604) and Côte d'Ivoire 1.4% (18,472). These top 10 infected countries collectively have accounted for 83.5% (1,083,071) of all reported cases in the African region [3][4][5].…”

“…And, they need strong interventions and treatment centers/hospitals, especially Ethiopia will be open more health facility centers since she has the lowest hospital beds per thousand (0.3) as Who reports showed. And as the WHO African region report, Ethiopia requires more tests and test reagents to intensify the implementation of the new strategy for COVID-19 response because of the increase in cases in the country [3][4][5][6][7][8].…”