2020
DOI: 10.1016/j.ijtb.2020.05.006
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COVID-19 and tuberculosis: A mathematical model based forecasting in Delhi, India

Abstract: Background: There is emerging evidence that patients with Latent Tuberculosis Infection(LTBI) and Tuberculosis(TB) disease have an increased risk of the SARS-CoV-2 infection and predisposition towards developing severe COVID-19 pneumonia. In this study we attempted to estimate the number of TB patients infected with SARS-CoV-2 and have severe disease during the COVID-19 epidemic in Delhi, India. Methods: Susceptible-Exposed-Infectious-Recovered (SEIR) model was used to estimate the number of COVID-19 cases in … Show more

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Cited by 52 publications
(33 citation statements)
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“…Tuberculosis (TB) still possesses the highest level of burden in India which generally occurs due to malnutrition associated with poverty. Lockdown cases had a great increasing impact on the TB cases while they are also vulnerable to COVID-19 infection [ 74 ]. Nevertheless, to manage the COVID-19 cases, colleges, hotels, railway train coaches, were converted into quarantine facilities while stadiums were converted into isolation wards.…”
Section: Indian Scenario For Covid-19mentioning
confidence: 99%
“…Tuberculosis (TB) still possesses the highest level of burden in India which generally occurs due to malnutrition associated with poverty. Lockdown cases had a great increasing impact on the TB cases while they are also vulnerable to COVID-19 infection [ 74 ]. Nevertheless, to manage the COVID-19 cases, colleges, hotels, railway train coaches, were converted into quarantine facilities while stadiums were converted into isolation wards.…”
Section: Indian Scenario For Covid-19mentioning
confidence: 99%
“…As the knowledge and studies about COVID-19 and TB is emerging, early evidence suggests patients with latent TB and established disease have an increased risk of the SARS-CoV-2 infection and predisposition towards developing severe COVID-19 pneumonia [ 22 , 23 ]. Mathematical model-based forecasting studies from New Delhi, India emphasize the importance of primary prevention measures especially in TB patients and the need of TB centres to prepare for concurrent infections [ 24 ].…”
Section: Covid-19 and Tb Diseasementioning
confidence: 99%
“…However, the isolation measures may result in a decrease in TB infections – one study noted a decrease in confirmed TB cases in 2020 (compared to previous years) [22] . Mathematical models have shown that in the absence of adequate primary prevention measures, an earlier and higher peak of COVID-19-TB coinfections (with more severe disease) may occur [23] .…”
Section: Discussionmentioning
confidence: 99%