Coupled oceanic‐atmospheric variability and U.S. streamflow

Tootle, Glenn A.; Piechota, Thomas C.; Singh, Ashok K.

doi:10.1029/2005wr004381

Cited by 158 publications

(172 citation statements)

References 31 publications

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“…The NAO influences the tracks of TCs over the North Atlantic Ocean (Elsner and Kara 1999;Elsner and Kocher 2000;Keim et al 2004;Elsner et al 2006;Elsner and Jagger 2006;Dailey et al 2009). Additionally, there is evidence of reductions in winter precipitation in the southeastern United States during NAO2 phases (Stenseth et al 2002), although some studies indicate an insignificant relationship between the NAO and precipitation in the southeastern United States during other seasons (Stahle and Cleaveland 1992;Henderson and Vega 1996;Katz et al 2003;Tootle et al 2005;Hurrell and Deser 2009). Maxwell et al (2012) identified the NAO as the only significant variable affecting the likelihood of a TCDB impacting the southeast ACS during the period 1950-2008.…”

Section: A Interdecadal Tc Landfall and Tc Precipitation Variabilitymentioning

confidence: 99%

Tropical Cyclones and Drought Amelioration in the Gulf and Southeastern Coastal United States

et al. 2013

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Precipitation from land-falling tropical cyclones (TCs) has a significant hydroclimatic influence in the southeastern United States, particularly during drought years. The frequency with which TCs ended drought conditions was examined for southeastern coastal states from Texas to North Carolina during 1895-2011. The region was divided into the Gulf Coast states (GCS) and the southeastern Atlantic coast states (ACS). The spatiotemporal patterns of tropical cyclone drought busters (TCDBs) were analyzed. Larger-scale ocean-atmosphere influences on TCDBs were examined using chi-squared analysis. The ACS experienced TCDBs more frequently and farther inland compared to the GCS. The number of TCDBs has significantly increased with time in the ACS. TCDBs numbers in the GCS did not exhibit significant increases, but the area alleviated of drought conditions increased significantly in the last 117 years. The dominant larger-scale oceanatmosphere forcing of TCDBs was a combination of a warm Atlantic Ocean ABSTRACTPrecipitation from land-falling tropical cyclones (TCs) has a significant hydroclimatic influence in the southeastern United States, particularly during drought years. The frequency with which TCs ended drought conditions was examined for southeastern coastal states from Texas to North Carolina during 1895-2011. The region was divided into the Gulf Coast states (GCS) and the southeastern Atlantic coast states (ACS). The spatiotemporal patterns of tropical cyclone drought busters (TCDBs) were analyzed. Larger-scale oceanatmosphere influences on TCDBs were examined using chi-squared analysis. The ACS experienced TCDBs more frequently and farther inland compared to the GCS. The number of TCDBs has significantly increased with time in the ACS. TCDBs numbers in the GCS did not exhibit significant increases, but the area alleviated of drought conditions increased significantly in the last 117 years. The dominant larger-scale ocean-atmosphere forcing of TCDBs was a combination of a warm Atlantic Ocean [positive Atlantic multidecadal oscillation index (AMO1)] and weak westerlies [negative North Atlantic Oscillation index (NAO2)]. AMO1 leads to an increase in the number of TCs throughout the North Atlantic basin, and NAO2 increases the likelihood of TC landfall by controlling the steering of TCs toward the southeastern United States.

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Section: A Interdecadal Tc Landfall and Tc Precipitation Variabilitymentioning

confidence: 99%

Tropical Cyclones and Drought Amelioration in the Gulf and Southeastern Coastal United States

et al. 2013

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“…These large-scale indices are not intended to capture the natural chaotic component of weather but have been shown to characterize the offshore marine atmosphere, which in the western US drives the seasonal onshore weather patterns. Past research has shown that certain large-scale climate variables have a significant relationship to western US hydrology (Mantua et al, 1997;McCabe and Dettinger, 2002;Beebee and Manga, 2004;Gedalof et al, 2004;Grantz et al, 2005;Tootle et al, 2005;Bonsal et al, 2006;Kingston et al, 2006;Kingston et al, 2007).…”

Section: Seasonal Streamflow Prediction Modelsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Other studies have looked at the relationship between large-scale climate teleconnections and weather or hydrologic phenomena (e.g. Mantua et al, 1997;McCabe and Dettinger, 2002;Beebee and Manga, 2004;Gedalof et al, 2004;Grantz et al, 2005;Tootle et al, 2005;Bonsal et al, 2006;Kingston et al, 2006Kingston et al, , 2007, but these have either not explicitly studied the Klamath Basin, or those that have considered the region have not found a related teleconnection index. In the present study, a teleconnection index related to the hydrology of the Klamath Basin has been found and incorporated into statistical streamflow forecasting models.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

The association between climate teleconnection indices and Upper Klamath seasonal streamflow: Trans‐Niño Index

Kennedy

Garen

Koch

2009

Hydrological Processes

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Abstract:This research investigates large-scale climate features affecting inter-annual hydrologic variability of streams flowing into Upper Klamath Lake (UKL), Oregon, USA. UKL is an arid, mountainous basin located in the rain shadow east of the crest of the Cascade Mountains in the northwestern United States. Developing accurate statistical models for predicting spring and summer seasonal streamflow volumes for UKL is difficult because the basin has complex hydrology and a high degree of topographic and climatologic variability. In an effort to reduce streamflow forecast uncertainty, six large-scale climate indices-the Pacific North American Pattern, Southern Oscillation Index, Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), Multivariate El Niño-Southern Oscillation Index, Niño 3Ð4, and a revised Trans-Niño Index (TNI)-were evaluated for their ability to explain inter-annual variation of the major hydrologic inputs into UKL.The TNI is the only index to show significant correlations during the current warm phase of the PDO. During the warm PDO phase (1978-present), the averaged October through December TNI is strongly correlated with the subsequent April through September streamflow (r D 0Ð7) and 1 April snow water equivalent (r D 0Ð6). Regional analysis shows that this climate signal is not limited to UKL but is found throughout the northwestern United States.Incorporating the TNI variable into statistical streamflow prediction models results in standard errors of forecasts issued on the first of February and earlier that are 7-10% smaller than those for the models without the TNI. This, coupled with other enhancements to the statistical models, offers a significant increment of improvement in forecasts used by water managers.

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“…Krakauer and Fung, 2008;Small et al, 2006;Tootle and Piechota, 2006] and large scale atmospheric circulation patterns [e.g. Barlow et al, 2001;Rajagopalan et al, 2000;Tootle and Piechota, 2006;Tootle et al, 2005].…”

Section: Principles Of Large-scale Hydrological Modellingmentioning

confidence: 99%

Spatial cross‐correlation patterns of European low, mean and high flows

Gudmundsson¹,

Tallaksen²,

Stahl³

2011

Hydrological Processes

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Low and high flows are associated with different hydrological processes. High flows correspond to the direct response of catchments to water input, whereas low flows occur in pronged dry periods and are governed by depleting storages. Therefore, the inter‐annual dynamics of high and low flows are often considered to be independent. To shed light on this assumption, we analysed a pan‐European dataset of 615 streamflow records, summarized as time series of annual streamflow percentiles (5th, 10th, …, 95th). The analysis was based on comparing the spatial cross‐correlation patterns derived from the different percentile series. Their interrelation was visualized by projecting them into a low‐dimensional space. We found that large parts of the cross‐correlations of the percentile series can be summarized by one dominating component. This component represents geographical continuous regions in Europe of correlated streamflow. Departures from this mean pattern occurred for low and high flows and were characterized by the corresponding spatial correlation functions. Generally, spatial correlations appear to be stronger for high flows than for mean flows, particularly for short distances (<400 km). Low flows, on the other hand, have the lowest spatial correlations for short distances. For longer distances (>800 km), this pattern reverses and the spatial correlation of low flows become largest. This discrepancy between low and high flows suggests that hydrological systems are more homogeneously linked to climatic fluctuations under wet conditions. Under dry conditions, local catchment properties appear to play a larger role in translating climatic fluctuations into hydrological response. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

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Coupled oceanic‐atmospheric variability and U.S. streamflow

Cited by 158 publications

References 31 publications

Tropical Cyclones and Drought Amelioration in the Gulf and Southeastern Coastal United States

Tropical Cyclones and Drought Amelioration in the Gulf and Southeastern Coastal United States

The association between climate teleconnection indices and Upper Klamath seasonal streamflow: Trans‐Niño Index

Spatial cross‐correlation patterns of European low, mean and high flows

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