Correlation, causation, motivation, and second language acquisition.

Abstract

It is well known to anyone who has taken even an introductory course in statistics that "correlation does not mean causation." This is a truism! The present article examines four truisms about correlation, demonstrating that they are not always true. For example, under certain conditions, correlation can imply causation, though these conditions are seldom satisfied in most applications. Nonetheless, there are many of us who are interested in investigating individual differences, and in making inferences of the type that this individual difference variable is related to, mediates, moderates, or even causes or influences that individual difference variable. Generally speaking, the analytic procedures we use involve the correlation coefficient in one form or another. I propose four steps that researchers can follow to accumulate evidence that increases one's confidence in the validity of a particular causal model. These steps are illustrated by reviewing research on individual differences in second language acquisition. This approach is not conclusive, of course, but it does force one to examine the implications of the model, thus leading to further insights and research. Although the focus here is on second language acquisition, the generalizations apply to other areas of research that are concerned with individual differences.When I was told that I was to receive the CPA Education and Training Award and was to give a talk in conjunction with it, I thought long and hard about a possible topic. My teaching interests involve statistics and data analysis, and my research interests are concerned primarily with the role of attitudes and motivation in second language acquisition. I decided, therefore, to focus attention on a Canadian Psychology/Psychologic canadienne, 41:1 statistical and conceptual issue that has troubled me over the years, and to discuss how I have resolved the issue in my own mind in the context of my research interests. The issue is that of the correlation coefficient and causation. To some, this is a nonissue. You cannot infer causation from correlation. Case closed! To those interested in individual differences, however, such a fatalistic conclusion is tantamount to concluding that there is no possible way of ever drawing a causal inference based on individual differences. One approach is to accept the canon that correlation does not imply causation, then go on to talk about prediction as opposed to causation (though as we shall see this still implies causation), and rely on causal (i.e., structural equation) modelling, and the like. The point is that individual difference research involves covariation, and regardless of which analytical procedure one adopts (i.e., multiple regression, factor analysis, discriminant function analysis, or even structural equation modelling, etc.), the basic statistic involves co-relation in one form or another. In the end, many of us believe that we have identified causal associations, even though we will concede that other interpretations are possible. That...

Causal Relationships between Integrative Motivation, Self-Efficacy, Strategy Use and English Language Achievement

“…However, results revealed that the effect of motivation on English achievement is significantly greater when it is supported by the variables ALS and INT. Similar results have been reported by Bernaus and Gardner (2008) and Gardner (2000Gardner ( , 2001aGardner ( , 2001bGardner ( , 2005Gardner ( , 2007. Therefore, results of the SEM analysis confirmed the hypothesis that motivation has a positive effect on English achievement both directly and when it is affected by ALS and INT which themselves have mutual relationship.…”

“…However, no significant direct causal relationship was found to exist between ALS and the learners' strategy use. This finding is contradictory to different studies which have shown that attitudes have played a significant role in the language learners' choice and application of learning strategies as well as successful second/foreign language learning (Gardner 2000, Kuramoto 2002, MacIntyre & Noels 1996. However the finding is in line with that of Gardner, Tremblay and Masgoret (1997).…”

“…It might be argued that ALS will not strongly affect L2 (foreign or second) achievement unless they are linked with motivation (Gardner 2000(Gardner , 2005. Therefore, as the results of this study also show, motivation mediates the actual influence of the variable ALS on English language achievement (Bernaus & Gardner 2008, Gardner 2007).…”

“…Although, Bernaus and Gardner (2008) and Gardner (2000Gardner ( , 2001aGardner ( , 2001bGardner ( , 2005Gardner ( , 2007 indicated the effects of ALS and INT on Language achievement through motivation, as mentioned by Gardner (2001a) himself, this does not mean that ALS and INT measures do not directly affect second or foreign language achievement. Bernaus, Wilson, andGardner (2009), Csizér andDörnyei (2005), and Masgoret and Gardner (2003) indicated that INT and ALS have significant direct positive effect on English language achievement.…”

Attitudes and Motivation of Turkish Undergraduate EFL Students towards Learning English Language

“…This study was carried out in an study, they introduced Socio-educational Model of Second Language Acquisition in classroom settings which has later been revised many times (Gardner, 1985;Gardner & MacIntyre, 1993;Gardner & Trembley, 1995;Gardner, 2000). According to this approach, social psychology and individual psychology need to be integrated to describe the factor of motivation in the success of learning the target language.…”