Convergence of socio-ecological dynamics in disparate ecological systems under strong coupling to human social systems

Abstract

It is widely recognized that coupled socio-ecological dynamics can be qualitatively different from the dynamics of social or ecological systems in isolation from one another. The influence of the type of ecological dynamics on the dynamics of the larger socio-ecological system is less well studied, however. Here, we carry out such a comparison using a mathematical model of a common pool resource problem. A population must make decisions about harvesting a renewable resource. Individuals may either be cooperators, who harvest at a sustainable level, or defectors, who over-harvest. Cooperators punish defectors through social ostracism.Individuals can switch strategies according the costs and benefits of harvesting and the strength of social ostracism. These mechanisms are represented by a differential equation for social dynamics which is coupled to three different types of resource dynamics: logistic growth, constant inflow, and threshold growth. We find that when human influence is sufficiently weak, the form of natural dynamics leaves a strong imprint on the socio-ecological dynamics, and human social dynamics are qualitatively very different from natural dynamics.However, stronger human influence introduces a broad intermediate parameter regime where dynamical patterns converge to a common type: the three types of ecological systems exhibit similar dynamics, but also, social and ecological dynamics strongly mirror one another. This is a consequence of stronger coupling and is reminiscent of synchrony from other fields, such as the classic problem of coupled oscillators in physics. Socio-ecological convergence has implications for how we understand and manage complex socio-ecological systems. In an era of growing human influence on ecological systems, further empirical and theoretical work is required to determine whether socio-ecological convergence is present in real systems. R n(e d −ec) and D = µ+ne d n(e d −ec). We observe that the non-dimensionalized resource dynamics depend on three major mechanisms: natural recruitment (first term involving A), removal due to natural death plus defectors (second term involving D), and

Prioritising COVID-19 vaccination in changing social and epidemiological landscapes: a mathematical modelling study

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Prioritising COVID-19 vaccination in changing social and epidemiological landscapes

“…We also note that the population-level behaviour and the epidemic curve closely mirrored each other (Figure 1). This may reflect convergence of social-environment dynamics, as has been predicted for strongly coupled systems (28).…”

Evolutionary games with environmental feedbacks

“…Intrinsic complexity can result from multiple interacting environmental factors or a single environmental factor that is subject to age-structured or stage-structured population dynamics. Sigdel et al 30 analyze a case where the environment has Allee effects. Allee effects can create hysteresis and critical transitions from which environmental recovery is unlikely.…”

“…Feedbacks even occur in psychology, where deliberative decision-making can beneficially shape the shared environment of social norms and institutions, but that environment then sets the stage for the success of less costly, non-deliberative decision-making 15 . Examples from these diverse fields share the common feature that feedbacks between strategies and the environment fundamentally alter dynamical predictions [16][17][18][19][20][21][22][23][24][25][26][27][28][29][30][31] . Understanding such systems requires a framework for studying game-theoretic dynamics when the nature of competitive interactions influences the environment, and conversely.…”