Controlling Interregional Migration Processes of a Markovian Type

Abstract

A framework is suggested within which normative modelling strategies can be used to make simple dynamic migration models more relevant to policymakers. A job-vacancy model is explicitly linked to a migration- and population-distribution model. Some suggestions are made about the ways in which the models could be modified in order to make them more realistic. Other areas of application are also briefly indicated.

Push-Pull Migration Laws

“…Notice that these effects are geographically uneven, being more pronounced for outlying places, and include geographical competition and shadowing. This suggests the following type of problem (MacKinnon 1975): where should one make a unit change for it to have the greatest (least) impact on the migration pattern? To the extent that the model describes important properties of actual behavior, this calculation of impacts of observed or proposed changes at places on the total migration system can be an extremely useful tool.…”

Solution Strategies for National Settlement System Planning Models

“…Replacing (3B) by (8) does not raise any real difficulty in deriving the optimal control solution. The method proposed is still applicable with a slight modification as will now be pointed out.…”

“…Several models have been described [8] but the various mathematical solutions to the problems posed have only been for the simpler forward-linkage and backward-linkage systems. With a nonlinear objective function and for the simplest model, the forward-linkage model, Evtushenko and MacKinnon [5] present an approach based on the penalty function methods of nonlinear programming.…”

“…Recently, considerable interest has arisen in finding optimal planning policies aimed at achieving certain desired population distributions within the context of national settlement system planning. Several models have been described [8] but the various mathematical solutions to the problems posed have only been for the simpler forward-linkage and backward-linkage systems. With a nonlinear objective function and for the simplest model, the forward-linkage model, Evtushenko and MacKinnon [5] present an approach based on the penalty function methods of nonlinear programming.…”

An optimal control approach to national settlement system planning

“…The problem description is the same as considered by MacKinnon [ 6 ] and by Evtushenko and MacKinnon [ 4 1 . It is shown how the special structure of the model and the singular nature of the control can be used to reduce the solution of a nonlinear programming problem to the solution of sets of linear equations.…”