Contribution of external forcings to the observed trend in surface temperature over Africa during 1901–2014 and its future projection from CMIP6 simulations

Iyakaremye, Vedaste; Zeng, Gang; Siebert, Asher; Yang, Xiaonan

doi:10.1016/j.atmosres.2021.105512

Cited by 24 publications

(17 citation statements)

References 61 publications

Supporting

Mentioning

Contrasting

Order By: Relevance

“…The variability and changes in climatic variables have been observed over the region with the most significant change in temperature in past decades. The recently observed temperature change is mainly attributed to greenhouse gas emissions [1] and natural internal variability such as the El Nino Southern Oscillation as well as the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation [75][76][77][78][79].…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…As the rise in surface temperature continues unabatedly, the level of global warming impacts society, and the environment escalates. For instance, greenhouse gases are the main cause of a rapid increase in temperature [1,2] and drying conditions resulting in an increased drought in many places worldwide [3,4]. East Africa has frequently experienced severe and prolonged drought events leading to electric shortages and profound impacts on agricultural activities [5,6].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…The same decreasing trend in MAM rainfall was revealed over Rwanda [44], while an increasing trend was obtained during the OND season. Unlike rainfall, the SAT has been increasing over the region since the end of the 20th century and in the early 21st century, and it is also anticipated to increase in the future due to climate change [1,38,39].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

See 2 more Smart Citations

Observed Changes in Meteorological Drought Events during 1981–2020 over Rwanda, East Africa

Uwimbabazi

Jing²,

Iyakaremye

et al. 2022

Sustainability

Self Cite

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

Drought is one of the most complex natural phenomena affecting the life and livelihood of people, especially in the current time of human-induced climate change. This research employs ground-based observations to assess the recent spatiotemporal characteristics of meteorological drought events over Rwanda. The drought is examined based on the Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) and Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) at seasonal and annual time scales from 1981 to 2020. The Man–Kendal test was used to evaluate the trends in rainfall, temperature, and SPEI values at the annual scale and during the March to May (MAM) and October to December (OND) seasons. The analysis revealed nonsignificant trends in annual (8.4 mm/decade), MAM (−3.4 mm/decade), and OND (4.5 mm/decade) rainfall, while an apparent significant increasing trend in surface air temperature was obtained during the MAM (0.19 °C/decade), OND (0.2 °C/decade), and annual (0.23 °C/decade) time slices. Overall, the SPEI characteristics indicated that the country is more prone to moderate drought events than severe and extreme drought events during MAM and OND seasons. However, the intensity, duration, and frequency differ spatially among seasons. The findings of this study inform policy and decision-makers on the past experienced drought behavior, which can serve as a baseline for future drought mitigation and adaptation plans.

show abstract

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

See 1 more Smart Citation

Observed Changes in Meteorological Drought Events during 1981–2020 over Rwanda, East Africa

Uwimbabazi

Jing²,

Iyakaremye

et al. 2022

Sustainability

Self Cite

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

show abstract

“…For instance, many sub-regions have experienced notable changes in precipitation over the recent decades [4,21,26]. Similarly, positive trajectories in temperature have been observed and are projected to increase significantly across the continent [20,[27][28][29][30][31][32]. This will affect the broader population's livelihoods that mainly rely on rainfed agriculture [33].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Future Changes in Precipitation Extremes over East Africa Based on CMIP6 Models

Ayugi

Dike

Ngoma

et al. 2021

Water

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

This paper presents an analysis of projected precipitation extremes over the East African region. The study employs six indices defined by the Expert Team on Climate Change Detection Indices to evaluate extreme precipitation. Observed datasets and Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase six (CMIP6) simulations are employed to assess the changes during the two main rainfall seasons: March to May (MAM) and October to December (OND). The results show an increase in consecutive dry days (CDD) and decrease in consecutive wet days (CWD) towards the end of the 21st century (2081–2100) relative to the baseline period (1995–2014) in both seasons. Moreover, simple daily intensity (SDII), very wet days (R95 p), very heavy precipitation >20 mm (R20 mm), and total wet-day precipitation (PRCPTOT) demonstrate significant changes during OND compared to the MAM season. The spatial variation for extreme incidences shows likely intensification over Uganda and most parts of Kenya, while a reduction is observed over the Tanzania region. The increase in projected extremes may pose a serious threat to the sustainability of societal infrastructure and ecosystem wellbeing. The results from these analyses present an opportunity to understand the emergence of extreme events and the capability of model outputs from CMIP6 in estimating the projected changes. More studies are recommended to examine the underlying physical features modulating the occurrence of extreme incidences projected for relevant policies.

show abstract

“…Moreover, Dai, et al [70] evaluated the relationship between the Palmer Drought Index and soil moisture, as well as the effects of surface heat, concluding that the probability of drought will rise as anthropogenic global warming progresses due to higher temperatures and increased drying. Several studies [48,61,71] have also reported an increase in temperature across the African tropics. Furthermore, Nooni, et al [72] reported that humid tropical and equatorial zones are expected to experience a significant increase in ET, especially in central and eastern Africa.…”

Section: Impact Of Climate Change On Evapotranspirationmentioning

confidence: 98%

Future Climate Change Impact on the Nyabugogo Catchment Water Balance in Rwanda

Umugwaneza

Chen

Liu

et al. 2021

Water

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

Droughts and floods are common in tropical regions, including Rwanda, and are likely to be aggravated by climate change. Consequently, assessing the effects of climate change on hydrological systems has become critical. The goal of this study is to analyze the impact of climate change on the water balance in the Nyabugogo catchment by downscaling 10 global climate models (GCMs) from CMIP6 using the inverse distance weighting (IDW) method. To apply climate change signals under the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) (low and high emission) scenarios, the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model was used. For the baseline scenario, the period 1950–2014 was employed, whereas the periods 2020–2050 and 2050–2100 were used for future scenario analysis. The streamflow was projected to decrease by 7.2 and 3.49% under SSP126 in the 2020–2050 and 2050–2100 periods, respectively; under SSP585, it showed a 3.26% increase in 2020–2050 and a 4.53% decrease in 2050–2100. The average annual surface runoff was projected to decrease by 11.66 (4.40)% under SSP126 in the 2020–2050 (2050–2100) period, while an increase of 3.25% in 2020–2050 and a decline of 5.42% in 2050–2100 were expected under SSP585. Climate change is expected to have an impact on the components of the hydrological cycle (such as streamflow and surface runoff). This situation may, therefore, lead to an increase in water stress, calling for the integrated management of available water resources in order to match the increasing water demand in the study area. This study’s findings could be useful for the establishment of adaptation plans to climate change, managing water resources, and water engineering.

show abstract

Contribution of external forcings to the observed trend in surface temperature over Africa during 1901–2014 and its future projection from CMIP6 simulations

Cited by 24 publications

References 61 publications

Observed Changes in Meteorological Drought Events during 1981–2020 over Rwanda, East Africa

Observed Changes in Meteorological Drought Events during 1981–2020 over Rwanda, East Africa

Future Changes in Precipitation Extremes over East Africa Based on CMIP6 Models

Future Climate Change Impact on the Nyabugogo Catchment Water Balance in Rwanda

Contact Info

Product

Resources

About