Observed Changes in Meteorological Drought Events during 1981–2020 over Rwanda, East Africa

Uwimbabazi, Jacqueline; Jing, Yuanshu; Iyakaremye, Vedaste; Ullah, Irfan; Ayugi, Brian

doi:10.3390/su14031519

Cited by 31 publications

(25 citation statements)

References 88 publications

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“…SA experienced severe drought episodes in the recent past (Aadhar & Mishra, 2020a; Singh et al., 2021), which caused severe agricultural, economic, and environmental losses (Arshad et al., 2021; Miao et al., 2020; Uwimbabazi et al., 2022). Furthermore, a highly dense population and agriculture‐based economy make SA more susceptible to extreme drought events (Lange et al., 2020; Mondal et al., 2021; Saeed et al., 2021).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Projected Changes in Increased Drought Risks Over South Asia Under a Warmer Climate

Ullah

Asfaw

et al. 2022

Earth's Future

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Every year, millions of people are at risk due to droughts in South Asia (SA). The likely impacts of droughts are projected to increase with global warming. This study uses the new ensemble mean of 23 global climate models from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 6 (CMIP6), population and gross domestic product (GDP) projections to quantify future changes in increasing drought risks and associated socioeconomic exposure across SA and its subregions under 1.5°C and 2°C of warming. We used two shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs), SSP2‐4.5 and SSP5‐8.5. The most likely realization copula functions are used to model the joint distribution of drought severity and duration. Simultaneously, changes in the bivariate return period are calculated under a warming climate. The frequency of 50‐year historical droughts (under a bivariate framework) might double across 80% of the SA land area under 1.5°C of warming. Conversely, 12% of SA landmasses may suffer extreme droughts under 2°C of warming. The severe drought episode frequency is expected to increase under 1.5°C (40%–75%) and 2°C (60%–90%) of warming relative to the recent climate. The largest exposure increase is projected in R2 and R4, then R1. Additionally, 75% (65%) of the SA population (GDP) could suffer from increased drought risks under the 1.5°C warmer climate, whereas the additional 0.5°C warming will lead to an unbearable regional situation. Limiting global warming to 1.5°C compared with 2°C can significantly reduce the drought risk influence in SA. These findings can help disaster‐risk managers to adopt climate‐smart management strategies.

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Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Projected Changes in Increased Drought Risks Over South Asia Under a Warmer Climate

Ullah

Asfaw

et al. 2022

Earth's Future

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“…Drought-affected areas take a long time to recover after a long period of drought [16]. Therefore, it is very necessary to study drought to reduce its associated risks [17,18].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Spatiotemporal Rainfall Variability and Drought Assessment during Past Five Decades in South Korea Using SPI and SPEI

et al. 2022

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About 41% of the earth is drought-affected, which has impacted nearly 2 billion people, and it is expected that more than 90% of terrestrial areas will be degraded by 2050. To evade and mitigate the harmful impacts of drought, it is necessary to study the rainfall variability and assess the drought trend at a global and regional level. This study utilized 70 meteorological stations in South Korea to evaluate the rainfall variability, drought, and its trend during the past five decades using the standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index (SPEI) and the standardized precipitation index (SPI). Rainfall data normality was assessed with mean, standard deviation, skewness, and kurtosis. The highest amount of rainfall was observed in the months of June, July, and August. The SPI and SPEI 12-month results revealed that 1982, 1988, 2008, 2015, and 2017 were dry years throughout the country, while from 2013 to 2017 mixed drought events were observed for the 6-month time series. The Mann-Kendall trend test was applied to the 1- and 12-month time series, and the results revealed that the months of January, March, April, May, June, and August had a significant negative trend, which means drought is increasing in these months, while the months of September, October, and December had a significant positive trend, which means wetter conditions prevailed in these months during the study period. It was observed in the 12-month time series that only two met stations had a significant negative trend, while only one had a significant positive trend. It was found that January and March were the driest months, and October was the wettest month. The detected drought events in this research are consistent with ENSO events. We have observed differences in drought characteristics (duration and frequency) for both indices. Climatic data revealed that South Korea has faced drought conditions (rainfall deficit) due to a shortened monsoon season. This study can provide guidance on water management strategies under the changing pattern of drought in South Korea.

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“…Firstly, the study was limited to analyzing the meteorological drought impact on wheat yield using a single drought index, i.e., the SPI, which is comparable to other indices, such as the SPEI, PDSI, and scPDSI, for incorporating the impacts of temperature and evapotranspiration. A similar type of study for drought assessment in east Africa utilized the SPI and SPEI and presented quite similar results, with some uncertainties in the over- and underestimation of drought events [ 98 ]. However, the results of multiple indices may vary from region to region and can be utilized in the future to differentiate drought impacts in rainfed and irrigated wheat regions.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 98%

Meteorological Drought Variability and Its Impact on Wheat Yields across South Africa

Nxumalo

Bashir

Alsafadi

et al. 2022

IJERPH

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Drought is one of the natural hazards that have negatively affected the agricultural sector worldwide. The aims of this study were to track drought characteristics (duration (DD), severity (DS), and frequency (DF)) in South Africa between 2002 and 2021 and to evaluate its impact on wheat production. Climate data were collected from the South African Weather Service (SAWS) along with wheat yield data from the Department of Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries (2002–2021). The standard precipitation index (SPI) was calculated on 3-, 6-, 9-, and 12-month time scales, and the trend was then tracked using the Mann–Kendall (MK) test. To signify the climatic effects on crop yield, the standardized yield residual series (SYRS) was computed along with the crop-drought resilience factor (CR) on a provincial scale (2002–2021). The output of the SPI analysis for 32 stations covering all of South Africa indicates a drought tendency across the country. On a regional scale, western coastal provinces (WES-C and NR-C) have been more vulnerable to meteorological droughts over the past 20 years. Positive correlation results between SYRS and wheat yield indicate that the WES-C province was highly influenced by drought during all stages of wheat growth (Apr–Nov). Historical drought spells in 2003, 2009, and 2010 with low CR = 0.64 caused the province to be highly impacted by the negative impacts of droughts on yield loss. Overall, drought events have historically impacted the western part of the country and dominated in the coastal area. Thus, mitigation plans should be commenced, and priority should be given to this region. These findings can assist policymakers in budgeting for irrigation demand in rainfed agricultural regions.

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Observed Changes in Meteorological Drought Events during 1981–2020 over Rwanda, East Africa

Cited by 31 publications

References 88 publications

Projected Changes in Increased Drought Risks Over South Asia Under a Warmer Climate

Projected Changes in Increased Drought Risks Over South Asia Under a Warmer Climate

Spatiotemporal Rainfall Variability and Drought Assessment during Past Five Decades in South Korea Using SPI and SPEI

Meteorological Drought Variability and Its Impact on Wheat Yields across South Africa

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