Continuous decline in lower stratospheric ozone offsets ozone layer recovery

Ball, William T.; Alsing, Justin; Mortlock, D.; Staehelin, J.; Haigh, Joanna D.; Peter, Thomas; Tummon, Fiona; Stübi, René; Stenke, Andrea; Anderson, J.; Bourassa, A. E.; Davis, Sean; Degenstein, D. A.; Frith, S. M.; Froidevaux, L.; Roth, Chris; Sofieva, Viktoria; Wang, Ray; Wild, Jeannette; Yu, Pengfei; Ziemke, J. R.; Rozanov, Eugene

doi:10.5194/acp-2017-862

Cited by 6 publications

(9 citation statements)

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“…The strong negative change in trend suggested by the regression model is clearly apparent in the observations. This decline in Southern Hemisphere sub-tropical TCO seen here is consistent with other reports of continued declines in tropical ozone after 2000(Ball et al, 2018). Further research is required into the mechanisms 29 https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-2020…”

supporting

confidence: 87%

A Global Total Column Ozone Climate Data Record

Bodeker¹,

Nitzbon²,

Tradowsky³

et al. 2020

Preprint

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Abstract. Total column ozone (TCO) data from multiple satellite-based instruments have been combined to create a single near-global daily time series of ozone fields at 1.25° longitude by 1° latitude spanning the period 31 October 1978 to 31 December 2016. Comparisons against TCO measurements from the ground-based Dobson and Brewer spectrophotometer networks are used to remove offsets and drifts between the ground-based measurements and a subset of the satellite-based measurements. The corrected subset is then used as a basis for homogenising the remaining data sets. The construction of this database improves on earlier versions of the database maintained first by the National Institute of Water and Atmospheric Research (NIWA) and now by Bodeker Scientific (BS), referred to as the NIWA-BS TCO database. The intention is that the NIWA-BS TCO database serves as a climate data record for TCO and, to this end, the requirements for constructing climate data records, as detailed by GCOS (the Global Climate Observing System) have been followed as closely as possible. This new version includes a wider range of satellite-based instruments, uses updated sources of satellite data, extends the period covered, uses improved statistical methods to model the difference fields when homogenising the data sets, and, perhaps most importantly, robustly tracks uncertainties from the source data sets through to the final climate data record which is now accompanied by associated uncertainty fields. Furthermore, a gap-free TCO database (referred to as the BS-filled TCO database) has been created and is documented in this paper. The utility of the NIWA-BS TCO database is demon strated through an analysis of ozone trends from November 1978 to December 2016. Both databases are freely available for non-commercial purposes: the doi for the NIWA-BS TCO database is 10.5281/zenodo.1346424 (Bodeker et al., 2018) and is available from https://zenodo.org/record/1346424. The doi for the BS-filled TCO database is 10.5281/zenodo.3908787 (Bodeker et al., 2020) and is available from https://zenodo.org/record/3908787. In addition, both data sets are available from http://www.bodekerscientific.com/data/total-column-ozone.

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supporting

confidence: 87%

A Global Total Column Ozone Climate Data Record

Bodeker¹,

Nitzbon²,

Tradowsky³

et al. 2020

Preprint

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“…Some simulations incorporate observations into a general circulation model to produce an assimilated O 3 product, and in other simulations O 3 is calculated by a chemical mechanism that is driven by a historical meteorological reanalysis and emission inventories (the latter are the focus of this paper). Wargan et al () used three different NASA Modern‐Era Retrospective Analysis for Research Applications version 2 (MERRA‐2; Gelaro et al, ) assimilation and model products and found downward LS O 3 trends from 1998 to 2016 similar to Ball et al (), although they attributed the trend mostly to a changing stratospheric circulation.…”

Section: Introduction: the Role For Models In Interpreting Ozone Trendsmentioning

confidence: 88%

“…For example, different satellite tropospheric O 3 products show significantly positive or significantly negative trends of ~0.5 Dobson units (DU) per year over the same regions of the southern hemisphere (Gaudel et al, ). Recently, Ball et al () reported a statistically significant downward trend in LS O 3 (1998–2016 from −60° to 60° latitude) from several merged satellite data sets. This trend potentially offsets the O 3 recovery observed in the upper stratosphere (Harris et al, ; Steinbrecht et al, ).…”

Section: Introduction: the Role For Models In Interpreting Ozone Trendsmentioning

confidence: 98%

“…This trend potentially offsets the O 3 recovery observed in the upper stratosphere (Harris et al, ; Steinbrecht et al, ). Ball et al () speculated that increased O 3 depletion from halogenated very short‐lived substances may play a role in the LS downward trend. Chipperfield et al () argued that interannual variability caused by LS dynamics complicates interpretation of the trends (LS O 3 in 2017 was anomalously high).…”

Section: Introduction: the Role For Models In Interpreting Ozone Trendsmentioning

confidence: 99%

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The Effects of a 1998 Observing System Change on MERRA‐2‐Based Ozone Profile Simulations

Stauffer

Thompson²,

Oman³

et al. 2019

JGR Atmospheres

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Model simulations of ozone (O3) driven by meteorological reanalyses are useful for filling observational gaps and interpreting observed O3 variability and trends. However, the transport circulation of reanalysis products is impacted by changes to the observing system (the data assimilated into the reanalyses). We examine the impacts of these changes on simulated O3 from two models, Global Modeling Initiative (GMI) Chemistry Transport Model (GMI CTM) and Modern‐Era Retrospective Analysis for Research Applications version 2 (MERRA‐2) GMI Replay (M2 GMI Replay) simulation, using observations from global ozonesondes (>50,000 profiles) and satellites from 1980 to 2016. Both models are constrained by meteorology from the NASA MERRA‐2 reanalysis, and both use versions of NASA's GMI chemical mechanism. We focus on an observing system change affecting simulated O3 after 1998, associated with the assimilation of temperature and humidity data from new microwave profiling satellites. A large post‐1998 O3 increase, mainly confined to 15–20‐km altitude, of ~10 Dobson units (DU) in midlatitudes occurs in the GMI CTM, worsening the bias compared to observations. In contrast, an increase in M2 GMI Replay simulation O3 of ~10 DU is observed only near −60° latitude, reducing the bias compared to observations. The GMI CTM O3 high biases display a Quasi‐Biennial Oscillation (QBO)‐like periodicity that result from excessive transport from the tropical stratosphere to the midlatitude lower stratosphere during the QBO westerly phase. We quantify O3 discontinuities caused by MERRA‐2 observing system changes and demonstrate how the MERRA‐2 Global Modeling Initiative Replay simulation dampens the effects of these changes and QBO‐driven artifacts on simulated lower stratospheric and total O3. We caution against using simulations driven by a reanalysis to derive multidecadal O3 trends, especially prior to 1998.

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“…Although the levels of O3 have increased in recent years and the layer has been regenerated, the initial values of this gas have not been recovered before the beginning of the decline in 1970. Therefore, it is considered a threat to the nearby latitudes [2]. Therefore, the UV radiation reaching the surface water level has increased; therefore, the southern hemisphere has received more radiation than the northern hemisphere in the last three decades [3].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Influence of (extreme) radiation and optical characteristics in physical and biological features of a regulated lake

et al. 2019

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Radiation plays an essential role in the establishment and proliferation of biota in natural environments. The photosynthetic process determines the existence of all life forms, since it supplies the energy that this photobiological process needs for the reaction, it is carried out by absorbing photons in the visible and infrared bands of the electromagnetic spectrum, while ultraviolet (UV) photons and ionizing radiation tends to inhibit it (decreasing, by various mechanisms, its quantum yield). The speed of photosynthesis, measured by the amount of O2 released in the unit of time (or CO2 absorbed) depends on the intensity of the incident light, in the last three decades this radiation has been increased by the decrease of stratospheric ozone in the South latitudes of our planet, for this reason the UV values in the aquatic ecosystems of Chile have been high as well as a considerable increase in the surface temperature of the bodies of water, having possible implications in the primary biological productivity of the ecosystems lakes, especially in Andean lakes. This increase in radiation could be related to the abundance of the different algal groups and the seasonal variability of them, creating favorable conditions for those dominant species considered invasive of these ecosystems. This paper shows the direct relationship between the concentration of ozone (O3) and ultraviolet radiation and how it influences the vertical distribution of the phytoplankton groups in the water column. For the first time it was found in this lake the appearance of a bloom of toxic cyanobacteria.

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Continuous decline in lower stratospheric ozone offsets ozone layer recovery

Cited by 6 publications

References 0 publications

A Global Total Column Ozone Climate Data Record

A Global Total Column Ozone Climate Data Record

The Effects of a 1998 Observing System Change on MERRA‐2‐Based Ozone Profile Simulations

Influence of (extreme) radiation and optical characteristics in physical and biological features of a regulated lake

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