Containing Large-Scale Criminal Violence Through Internationalized Prosecution: How the Collaboration Between the CICIG and Guatemala’s Law Enforcement Contributed to a Sustained Reduction in the Murder Rate

Abstract

How do post-conflict societies contain large-scale criminal violence when state security forces that committed atrocities during a civil war remain unpunished and become key players in the criminal underworld? This article explores the impact on violence reduction of internationalized prosecution (IP): cooperation agreements between an international organization and a country’s public prosecutors to dismantle state-criminal networks through judicial action. We assess the IP process by which the United Nations–sponsored International Commission Against Impunity in Guatemala (CICIG) and Guatemala’s law enforcement dismantled over 70 criminal structures led by death squads and the civil war military establishment. Using synthetic control models, we estimate that Guatemala’s IP process plausibly prevented the occurrence of between 20,000 and 30,000 homicides, from 2008 until 2019. Case studies show how IP contributed to violence reduction by removing criminal structures and deterring both state-criminal collusion and the state’s use of iron-fist militarized policies against crime.

Why programmatic parties reduce criminal violence: Theory and evidence from Brazil

“…However, this approach has been shown to be counterproductive, as it typically increases violence and undermines human rights (Flores-Macías and Zarkin, 2021; Magaloni and Rodriguez, 2020; Calderón et al, 2015). Consequently, scholars have recently investigated alternatives to tough-on-crime policies (Trejo and Nieto-Matiz, 2022). We add to this growing scholarship by suggesting that empowering programmatic parties at the expense of clientelistic ones can be a powerful alternative to the widely-used iron fist approach.…”

Network analysis in peace and state building: revealing power elites

“…Contemporary state-building international operations vary from country to country and from conflict type but often include judicial reforms, commitments to strengthening political structures, assistance in prosecution and law enforcement and anti-corruption strategies, seeking long-lasting stability and peace (Spector, 2011; Cheng and Zaum, 2012) and decrease of criminality in the host state (Holt and Bouch, 2009, Trejo and Nieto-Matiz, 2022). An international intervention aimed at dismantling illicit networks becomes warranted when years of conflict have eroded state institutions, resulting in resource scarcity, tax collection deficiencies, deep-seated involvement of organized crime syndicates in governance, and participation of violent gangs, groups, or cartels in illicit activities.…”

“…Such environments severely impact economic development; they create an uneven playing field that strengthens powerful elites, erodes trust in public institutions, and diminishes social cohesion. Because powerful elites operate unchecked and often serve as gatekeepers, tackling corruption networks in criminal environments often uncovers the root causes of conflicts and provides means to identify, target, and address these complex illicit dynamics, such as the collusion between powerful criminal actors and state institutions and individuals in opaque financial systems (Trejo and Nieto-Matiz, 2022).…”

“…Secondly, it explores the network analysis approach's essentials, addressing the information and data requirements and limitations inherent in its application in such environments. Thirdly, the paper provides valuable insights drawn from an international operation led by the International Commission for Impunity in Guatemala (CICIG), which was uniquely designed to target illicit networks through the judicial prosecution of crimes and corruption between the years 2007 and 2019, while simultaneously aiming for state-building objectives (Waxenecker, 2019;Hallock, 2021;Zamudio-González, 2021;Trejo and Nieto-Matiz, 2022). Approaching the practical realm, this case's insights show the potential of initiating discussions on translating network interventions into tangible applications in areas such as judicial prosecution, prevention, and the restructuring of economic incentives.…”

Extortion, Civic Action, and Political Participation among Guatemalan Deportees

“…Guatemala's party system has a low level of institutionalization (Mainwaring 2018; Sánchez 2008), and the military plays a prominent role in politics (Isaacs and Schwartz 2020). There is evidence of vote-buying, violence against voters (Gonzalez-Ocantos et al 2020), and corruption (CICIG 2019; Trejo and Nieto-Matiz 2022). In the 2019 presidential election, only 42 per cent of the country's registered voters turned out to vote (Cuffe 2019).…”