How do policing institutions affect the prospects for peace in post-conflict settings? We present a principal-agent theoretical framework to explain how the institutional design of policing affects the recurrence of civil conflict. We argue that the fragmentation of police forces can reignite conflict dynamics by impeding coordinated action, undermining information sharing, and enabling agents to pursue their own interests. We test these expectations with the Police Force Organization Dataset (PFOD) on police forces in over 100 developing states. Our empirical analyses show that increasing the number of distinct police forces is systematically associated with an increased risk of conflict recurrence in post-conflict states. We also find that a larger number of police forces is associated with more abuse against civilian populations in post-conflict states, setting the stage for new grievances that may undermine peace.
The proportionality coefficient, K, and the weighing parameter, X, required for the Muskingum-Cunge Flood Routing Method are dependent on the hydraulic characteristics of the channel and the dynamic characteristic of the flood wave. This work focuses on the determination of the Muskingum-Cunge Flood Routing Method parameters for streams where measured hydrographs are not available (i.e., ungaged streams) with floods that stay within the channel banks. In the present work, a gaged creek was used and a dynamic wave was routed to test the reliability of the parameters determined through the Schaefer and Stevens technique (Schaefer and Stevens, 1978). The predicted outflow hydrographs are compared to the hydrographs obtained for the same stream determined with the Muskingum Routing option of the HEC-1 program. Cypress Creek in Harris County, Texas, was the model for this work; and the corresponding data were extracted from the Grant Road and Westfield, Texas, USGS gaging stations. (KEY TERMS: routing; ungaged channels; hydrograph analysis; surface hydrology; dimensional analysis; Muskingum-Cunge parameters.)
Community policing, and citizen cooperation with law enforcement more broadly, can improve local security outcomes by providing decentralized mechanisms for police accountability to local citizens. We hypothesize that five factors—alignment of citizen/police interests, relative costs of cooperation, costs of crime, prevalence of others’ cooperation, and perceived police efficacy—comprise a decision framework that guides citizens’ choices regarding whether to share information with law enforcement. We find evidence for this framework using rich survey and survey experimental data from a large nation-wide survey of Guatemalans and municipal administrative data. Our results indicate that increasing police efficacy, witness protection, and neighborhood trust boost the odds of cooperation with police by up to 55%. At a time when conversations about the relationship between community and police are widespread, this research offers insights into conditions under which cooperation between community members and law enforcement is most likely to occur.
How do governments in post-conflict settings provide for policing within their countries? I argue that leaders respond to both electoral concerns and security threats in shaping the geographic provision of policing infrastructure. Focusing on Uganda, I contend that the territorial expansion of policing has followed a distinct political logic. First, I use panel data on police infrastructure to demonstrate increased construction in counties with previously lower electoral support for the incumbent regime. Additionally, I find that counties with violence are more likely to experience increases in construction, but especially in areas where the incumbent has more support. Finally, I show that (1) proximity to police infrastructure is associated with worse individual perceptions of the police and (2) that increased construction of police infrastructure has large significant effects on reducing voter turnout while increasing vote share for the incumbent president. These findings have important implications for post-conflict reconstruction, stability, and violence.
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