Consumer heterogeneity and the development of environmentallyfriendly technologies

Windrum, Paul; Ciarli, Tommaso; Birchenhall, Chris

doi:10.1016/j.techfore.2008.04.011

Cited by 56 publications

(28 citation statements)

References 13 publications

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“…The agent-heterogeneity that ABM facilitates is a central factor in technology diffusion in general [100], and environmentally benign technology specifically, with "eco warriors" and early adopters functioning as launching customers [101]. While some income inequality speeds up adoption, too much hampers it [102,103].…”

Section: Specific Problems With Energy Modelsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Creating Agent-Based Energy Transition Management Models That Can Uncover Profitable Pathways to Climate Change Mitigation

Hoekstra

Steinbuch

Verbong³

2017

Complexity

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The energy domain is still dominated by equilibrium models that underestimate both the dangers and opportunities related to climate change. In reality, climate and energy systems contain tipping points, feedback loops, and exponential developments. This paper describes how to create realistic energy transition management models: quantitative models that can discover profitable pathways from fossil fuels to renewable energy. We review the literature regarding agent-based economics, disruptive innovation, and transition management and determine the following requirements. Actors must be detailed, heterogeneous, interacting, learning, and strategizing. Technology should be represented as a detailed and heterogeneous portfolio that can develop in a bottom-up manner, using endogenous feedback loops. Assumptions about discount rates and the social cost of carbon should be configurable. The model should contain interactions between the global, national, local, and individual level. A review of modelling techniques shows that equilibrium models are unsuitable and that system dynamics and discrete event simulation are too limited. The agent-based approach is found to be uniquely suited for the complex adaptive sociotechnical systems that must be modelled. But the choice for agent-based models does not mean a rejection of other approaches because they can be accommodated within the agent-based framework. We conclude with practical guidelines.

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Section: Specific Problems With Energy Modelsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Creating Agent-Based Energy Transition Management Models That Can Uncover Profitable Pathways to Climate Change Mitigation

Hoekstra

Steinbuch

Verbong³

2017

Complexity

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“…A particular future challenge will be to model technological transitions by specifying niches where new technologies can develop before they invade the mass market dominated by the old technology (Lopolito et al, 2013). In this context, one can think of co-evolutionary models of demand and supply (Windrum et al, 2009a(Windrum et al, , 2009bSafarzyńska and Van den Bergh, 2011).…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Thresholds models of technological transitions

Zeppini

Frenken

Kupers

2014

Environmental Innovation and Societal Transitions

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“…Hence, in these models, aspects of learning and interaction within the population of agents do not play a prominent role. A third approach is given by agent-based models of innovation diffusion (Silverberg et al 1988, Windrum and Birchenhall 2005, Schwoon 2006, Schwarz and Ernst 2009, Wittmann 2008, Windrum and Birchenhall 2009a. In these models-mostly related to products with different environmental qualities-the interaction and decisions of heterogeneous agents are an integral part of the modelling concept.…”

Section: Conceptual Foundationmentioning

confidence: 99%

Agent-based modelling of novelty creating behavior and sectoral growth effects—Linking the creative and the destructive side of innovation

2011

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For grasping the relationship between novelty creating activities of agents and growth of economic aggregates, a multi-level approach is suggested. The first level specifies the triggering conditions for novelty creating activities for the agents, i.e. firms. Here the behavioral elements and the modes of actions for the firms are portrayed using an agent-based approach (Section 2). On the second level, the consequences of successful innovations and imitations in a given sector of economic activities are dealt with (Section 3). This depends on the frequency of successful novelties and on the way they diffuse in that sector. We use an agent-related functional approach, applying difference equations for depicting the stylized facts of the diffusion dynamics. Only if these different levels of economic dynamics are distinguished as well as related to each other, is it possible to derive aggregate effects of novelties for the whole economy. This will be done by way of computer simulations (Section 4). Conclusions are drawn in Section 5.

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Consumer heterogeneity and the development of environmentallyfriendly technologies

Cited by 56 publications

References 13 publications

Creating Agent-Based Energy Transition Management Models That Can Uncover Profitable Pathways to Climate Change Mitigation

Creating Agent-Based Energy Transition Management Models That Can Uncover Profitable Pathways to Climate Change Mitigation

Thresholds models of technological transitions

Agent-based modelling of novelty creating behavior and sectoral growth effects—Linking the creative and the destructive side of innovation

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