Construction Project Cash Flow Planning Using the Pareto Optimality Efficiency Network Model / Statybos Projekto Pinigų Srautų Planavimas, Naudojant Pareto Optimumo Efektyvumo Tinklo Modelį

Abstract

Cash flow is crucial for ensuring the viability of a project. It consists of a complete history of all cash disbursement, cash shortage, loans, cost of money, and all earnings received. Although significant research work has been conducted on cash flow forecast, planning, and management, the objective is constantly the maximization of profit/final cash balance, or minimization of total project cost. Moreover, cash flow forecasting needs to be effective and fast. The paper develops multiple-objective cash flow planning model – Pareto optimality efficiency network model, which considers typical banking instruments, the constraints of the financial market, the budget constraints, and retention of money. A case study illustrates the multi-objective project cash flow management approach by applying the proposed model to a real world problem. A what-if-analysis depicts the tradeoff between profitability and loan interests, which are major issues in project cash flow planning and management. The model presents an effective decision making tool to be used by industry practitioners with reasonable accuracy. Santrauka Projekto gyvybingumui pinigų srautai turi kritinę reikšmę. Pinigų srautus sudaro piniginės viso projekto išlaidos, pinigų trūkumas, paskolos, pinigų kaina ir visos gautos pajamos. Nors atlikta daug pinigų srautų prognozių, planavimo ir valdymo tyrimų, jų objektas paprastai yra pelno (galutinio pinigų likučio) maksimizavimas arba bendros projekto kainos minimizavimas. Be to, pinigų srautų prognozavimas turi būti veiksmingas ir greitas. Darbe kuriamas daugiatikslis pinigų srautų planavimo modelis – Pareto optimumo efektyvumo tinklo modelis, kuris apima įprastas bankų veiklos priemones, finansų rinkos suvaržymus, biudžeto suvaržymus ir pinigų išsaugojimą. Tiriant atvejį pristatomas daugiatikslis projekto pinigų srautų valdymo metodas, t. y. taikant siūulomą modelį sprendžiamas praktinis uždavinys. Galimų variantų analizė (angl. What-if-analysis) rodo, kaip suderinti pelningumą ir paskolos palūkanas, t. y. pagrindines problemas planuojant ir valdant projekto pinigų srautus. Modelis yra gana tiksli ir efektyvi sprendimų priėmimo priemonė, skirta sektoriaus praktikams.

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Modelling the Effectiveness of PPP Road Infrastructure Projects by Applying Random Forests

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