Constructing a knowledge-based system to aid scenario-based strategic planning: an application to the European airline industry

Abstract

This paper explores the use of scenario planning and the design of a knowledge-based system in strategic decision making, in the context of the European airline industry. Several innovative strategies were derived, as well as other key recommendations based on sound strategic reasoning, and participants testified to the effectiveness of the approach in stretching their thinking. The requirement to draft strategies as expert system rules, with reasons, was useful in clarifying thinking and achieving group consensus. This methodology, therefore, aids effectiveness of the scenario planning process itself, while providing a dynamic, accessible means of storing the resulting strategic thinking.

2050 Scenarios for Long-Haul Tourism in the Evolving Global Climate Change Regime

“…Scenario-building has a recognized role in the tourism and aviation literature as discussed by several researchers [8][9][10][11][12][13][14][15][16]. However, note the caveat: Most of these scenario exercises consider aviation or tourism in silos, rather than in an integrated manner.…”

Scenario Planning: Toward a More Complete Model for Practice

“…Royal Dutch Shell's success in using scenario planning is well documented (see Cornelius, van de Putte, & Romani, 2005, for a good overview). Other successful users of scenario planning include land use planners, the airline industry, tourism, and even government (Davies, Moutinho, & Hutcheson, 2005;Foa & Howard, 2006;Kahane, 2002;Khakee, 1991;Song, Ding, & Knaap, 2006;Xiang & Clarke, 2003;Yaro & Hiss, 1996;Yeoman & McMahon-Beattie, 2005).…”

“…The scant information that is available about building scenario planning teams is fairly consistent. Teams should consist of a wide variety of participants with different intellectual and cultural backgrounds, including key decision makers within the company, employees at varying levels within the organizations with knowledge of each functional area, and professional or industry experts from outside the company (Davies, Moutinho, & Hutcheson, 2005;Ogilvy & Schwartz, 1998;Schwartz, 1996;Tucker, 1999). Furthermore, Ogilvy and Schwartz (1998) pointed out that inclusion of unorthodox, challenging thinkers is absolutely essential for scenario planning to be successful.…”

“…This is primarily because organizational leaders often limit the measurement of performance in terms of financial performance. This view is detrimental to the adoption of scenario planning because its ultimate purpose is not directed at increased financial performance but rather to improve the effectiveness of decision making by organizational leaders (Davies, Moutinho, & Hutcheson, 2005;Schwartz, 1996;Wack, 1985;Wright, 2005). However, one windfall by-product of better decision choices could be increased financial performance.…”