We present a new method of matching observations of Type I (thermonuclear) X-ray bursts with models, comparing the predictions of a semi-analytic ignition model with X-ray observations of the accretion-powered millisecond pulsar SAX J1808.4-3658 in outburst. We used a Bayesian analysis approach to marginalise over the parameters of interest and determine parameters such as fuel composition, distance/anisotropy factors, neutron star mass and neutron star radius. Our study includes a treatment of the system inclination effects, inferring that the rotation axis of the system is inclined 69 +4 −2 • from the observers line of sight, assuming a flat disc model. This method can be applied to any accreting source that exhibits Type I Xray bursts. We find a hydrogen mass fraction of 0.57 +0.13 −0.14 and CNO metallicity of 0.013 +0.006 −0.004 for the accreted fuel is required by the model to match the observed burst energies, for a distance to the source of 3.3 +0.3 −0.2 kpc. We infer a neutron star mass of 1.5 +0.6 −0.3 M and radius of 11.8 +1.3 −0.9 km for a surface gravity of 1.9 +0.7 −0.4 × 10 14 cm s −2 for SAX J1808.4-3658.