Constitutional Amendment 95/2016 and its impact on a federal university

Abstract

Purpose: To evaluate the effects of Constitutional Amendment 95/2016 on the budget of the University of Brasília in the period from 1995 to 2017, based on an econometric model for forecasting expenditure, using a hypothetical scenario and a retrospective approach.
 Methodology: Based on bibliographic and documentary research, statistical multiple linear regression modeling by the ordinary least squares method was used as a tool to measure and identify the possible effects of the Amendment on the University of Brasilia’s budget.
 Results: The constructed area, the length of stay of students, and the total number of employees were identified as the variables that have the greatest impact on the forecast of the University’s expenditure. These variables are statistically significant and positively related to the dependent variable “expenses paid”. When considering the historical scenario of UnB, especially with regard to the government policies adopted in the period analyzed, there were insufficient resources for maintaining the University’s main activities, which are widely recognized as the teaching, research and extension course tripod. This lack of resources was not a situation specific to UnB; it affected all federal institutions of higher education (IFES), and was linked to the period analyzed, during the time Constitutional Amendment [CA] 95/2016 was hypothetically valid in relation to the budget of the University of Brasilia, from 1995 to 2017.
 Contributions of the study: This study seeks to help expand the literature dealing with the management of public entities, specifically universities. By putting forward the respective variables, we enable future managers to measure the impact of the Constitutional Amendment in its historical context. These scenarios will enable adequate planning and decision making for expanding or reducing the supply of public services depending on the resources available.