Consistent increase in Indian monsoon rainfall and its variability across CMIP-5 models

Abstract

Abstract. The possibility of an impact of global warming on the Indian monsoon is of critical importance for the large population of this region. Future projections within the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 3 (CMIP-3) showed a wide range of trends with varying magnitude and sign across models. Here the Indian summer monsoon rainfall is evaluated in 20 CMIP-5 models for the period 1850 to 2100. In the new generation of climate models, a consistent increase in seasonal mean rainfall during the summer monsoon periods arises. All models simulate stronger seasonal mean rainfall in the future compared to the historic period under the strongest warming scenario RCP-8.5. Increase in seasonal mean rainfall is the largest for the RCP-8.5 scenario compared to other RCPs. Most of the models show a northward shift in monsoon circulation by the end of the 21st century compared to the historic period under the RCP-8.5 scenario. The interannual variability of the Indian monsoon rainfall also shows a consistent positive trend under unabated global warming. Since both the long-term increase in monsoon rainfall as well as the increase in interannual variability in the future is robust across a wide range of models, some confidence can be attributed to these projected trends.

Evolution of the Arabian Sea upwelling in the past centuries and in the future as simulated by Earth System Models

“…7c and 7d) is also strengthened due to the enhanced contrast between the surface heating over the land and the sea. This finding of enhanced upwelling favourable winds is consistent 30 with the result of Menon et al (2013). They presented that the simulated changes in the Monsoon circulation are quite robust across the CMIP model ensemble and consistent with the changes simulated by the MPI-ESM and CESM models, including the strengthening of the upwelling favourable winds in the future under RCP8.5 scenario.…”

Global warming-induced changes in climate zones based on CMIP5 projections

“…In southeastern Asia, our results suggest an expansion of the Aw type, which might be connected to increased strength of the Indian summer monsoon as documented e.g. by Menon et al (2013).…”

Synthetic Scenarios from CMIP5 Model Simulations for Climate Change Impact Assessments in Managed Ecosystems and Water Resources: Case Study in South Asian Countries

“…Studies have also evaluated the CMIP5 model simulations of precipitation and temperature for smaller regions in south Asia (Menon et al, 2013;Mishra et al, 2014;Raju et al, 2016). Many of these studies have focused on the Indian monsoon (Menon et al, 2013;Mishra et al, 2014;Niu et al, 2015;Raju et al, 2016;Ramesh and Goswami, 2014;Saha et al, 2014). Most of these studies provide information on changes in climate variables (e.g., precipitation and temperature) and the performance and reliability of GCMs in simulating them.…”

“…Some of these studies are for smaller regions in south Asia, such as India (Jayaraman and Murari, 2014;Mishra and Lilhare, 2016;Sonali and Kumar, 2016), Pakistan (Zahid and Iqbal, 2015), and China (Chen, 2013;Chong-Hai and Ying, 2012;Sun et al, 2015). Studies have also evaluated the CMIP5 model simulations of precipitation and temperature for smaller regions in south Asia (Menon et al, 2013;Mishra et al, 2014;Raju et al, 2016). Many of these studies have focused on the Indian monsoon (Menon et al, 2013;Mishra et al, 2014;Niu et al, 2015;Raju et al, 2016;Ramesh and Goswami, 2014;Saha et al, 2014).…”