Consistency of climate change projections from multiple global and regional model intercomparison projects

Fernández, Jesús Fernández; Frías, M. D. Rodríguez; Cabos, William; Cofiño, Antonio S.; Domínguez, Marta; Fita, L.; Gaertner, Miguel Ángel; García-Díez, Markel; Gutiérrez, José Manuel; Jiménez‐Guerrero, Pedro; Liguori, Giovanni; Montávez, Juan Pedro; Romera, Raquel; Sánchez, Enrique

doi:10.1007/s00382-018-4181-8

Cited by 55 publications

(65 citation statements)

References 90 publications

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“…Despite of a lacking full factorial design of the different uncertainty sources and their relative contribution to the total uncertainty range, they concluded the GCM to be main contributor of the uncertainty range. The emission scenario, at least for the near future, did not lead to strong uncertainties (Fernández et al, ). Moreover, it is critically noted that despite of the high horizontal resolution used in our study, noticeable biases still persist, which could affect our results, particularly in parts of the Guinea and the Sahel regions.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Performance Analysis and Projected Changes of Agroclimatological Indices Across West Africa Based on High‐Resolution Regional Climate Model Simulations

et al. 2018

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In this study, we analyze a set of agroclimatological indices across West Africa and assess their projected changes for the future. We apply the regional climate model CCLM (COnsortium for Small-scale MOdelling in CLimate Mode) with a high spatial resolution of 0.11 ∘ (approximately 12 km) under current and future climate conditions, based on the emission scenario RCP4.5. The focus is on purely rainfall-based indices, that is, the onset (ORS), the cessation (CRS), and the length of the rainy season (LRS) and the joint rainfall-and temperature-based indices, that is, growing degree days (GDD) and the water availability (WAV), derived for maize, sorghum, and pearl millet across Guinea, Savanna, and Sahel. For the present, in general, the CCLM compares well to observations, represented by three different products. However, CCLM shows limitations in the representation of the CRS over Guinea with a delay of >30 days and the GDD and WAV over Sahel with biases up to 30% and 70% for all crops. For the future climate projections, ORS, CRS, and LRS are expected to be delayed up to 2 weeks for most regions, in particular for the period 2071-2100. The GDD is expected to increase by around 8% till 2021-2050 and by around 5% till 2071-2100 for all crops. The WAV is expected to be decreased by up to 10% in 2021-2050, and by up to 24% in 2071-2100 in Sahel, and <12% over Guinea and Savanna in both periods. In particular, we evaluate the added value of the high-resolution CCLM information for decision support in agricultural management. Key Points:• CCLM model results were evaluated in terms of agricultural indices for cropping of maize, sorghum, and pearl millet across three different agroecological zones in West Africa • High-resolution future climate projections indicate a shortening of the rainy seasons by approximately 2 weeks in the Sahel region till the end of the century • The projected decreases (increases) of rainfall (temperature) over the Sahel region would negatively impact on water availability (WAV) and growing degree days (GDD)

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Performance Analysis and Projected Changes of Agroclimatological Indices Across West Africa Based on High‐Resolution Regional Climate Model Simulations

et al. 2018

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“…This data set provides daily data for several meteorological variables (here we only use precipitation) for the entire globe at a 0.5 • horizontal resolution (pretty similar to the 0.44 • resolution of the CORDEX simulations analyzed), spanning the period 1979-2013. EWEMBI has been built based on different data sources, namely, ERA-Interim (Dee et al, 2011), WFDEI (Weedon et al, 2014), and the eartH2Observe forcing data (Dutra, 2015). Recently, it has been used to correct the climatic inputs needed for the ISIMIP2b project (Frieler et al, 2017) and has also contributed to the 2018 IPCC special report on the impacts of global warming of 1.5 • C (https://www.ipcc.ch/sr15/).…”

Section: Observational Referencementioning

confidence: 99%

Assessing Multidomain Overlaps and Grand Ensemble Generation in CORDEX Regional Projections

Legasa

Fernández

Herrera

et al. 2020

Geophysical Research Letters

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The Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment (CORDEX) initiative has made available an enormous amount of regional climate projections in different domains worldwide. This information is crucial for the development of adaptation strategies and policy‐making. A relevant open issue in this context is assessing the potential multidomain conflicts that may result in overlapping regions and developing appropriate ensemble methods trying to make the most of all available information. This work addresses this timely topic by focusing on precipitation over the Mediterranean region, a first illustrative case study that is encompassed by both the Euro‐ and Africa‐CORDEX domains. We focus on several mean, extreme, and temporal indices and use variance decomposition to assess the separate contribution of the domain and models to the climate change signal, concluding that the contribution of the domain alone is nearly negligible (below 5% in all cases). Nevertheless, for some cases, the combined model/domain effect triggers up to 40% of the total variance.

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“…These changes may represent harsher thermal conditions for rural neighboring areas since it occurs at the end of the dry season, when vegetation is driest, and may be relevant for water resources, power consumption, and agriculture, but most importantly for rural fires [11]. These projected changes of extreme temperature coexist with an extension of the dry season and less precipitation in summer and autumn [66,67].…”

Section: Heat Wavesmentioning

confidence: 99%

A Consistent Methodology to Evaluate Temperature and Heat Wave Future Projections for Cities: A Case Study for Lisbon

et al. 2020

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Heat waves are large-scale atmospheric phenomena that may cause heat stress in ecosystems and socio-economic activities. In cities, morbidity and mortality may increase during a heat wave, overloading health and emergency services. In the face of climate change and associated warming, cities need to adapt and mitigate the effects of heat waves. This study suggests a new method to evaluate heat waves' impacts on cities by considering some aspects of heat waves that are not usually considered in other similar studies. The method devises heat wave quantities that are easy to calculate; it is relevant to assessing their impacts and permits the development of adaptation measures. This study applies the suggested method to quantify various aspects of heat waves in Lisbon for future climate projections considering future mid-term (2046-2065) and long-term (2081-2100) climates under the RCP8.5 greenhouse emission scenario. This is achieved through the analysis of various regional climate simulations performed with the WRF model and an ensemble of EURO-CORDEX models. This allows an estimation of uncertainty and confidence of the projections. To evaluate the climate change properties of heat waves, statistics for future climates are compared to those for a reference recent climate. Simulated temperatures are first bias corrected to minimize the model systematic errors relative to observations. The temperature for mid and long-term futures is expected to increase relative to the present by 1.6 • C and 3.6 • C, respectively, with late summer months registering the highest increases. The number of heat wave days per year will increase on average from 10, in the present climate, to 38 and 63 in mid and long-term climates, respectively. Heat wave duration, intensity, average maximum temperature, and accumulated temperature during a heat wave will also increase. Heat waves account for an annual average of accumulated temperature of 358 • C·day in the present climate, while in the mid and long-term, future climates account for 1270 • C·day and 2078 • C·day, respectively. The largest increases are expected to occur from July to October. Extreme intensity and long-duration heat waves with an average maximum temperature of more than 40 • C are expected to occur in the future climates.weather events such as storms and tornados. However, HW may negatively affect, for example, agriculture, forest fires, power supply for cooling, animal and human morbidity, and mortality, particularly of vulnerable people.HW are a synoptic scale weather phenomena that impact large regions, countries, and even great parts of a continent. Their effects may be locally amplified by various factors such as the type of land coverage, altitude, slope orientation of orography, and proximity to water bodies. In medium to large cities, HW may be strongly amplified by the nature of predominant materials in what is known as the urban heat island effect [2].Many HW studies have been published with a vast range of objectives, such as for example to evaluate the HW sp...

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Consistency of climate change projections from multiple global and regional model intercomparison projects

Cited by 55 publications

References 90 publications

Performance Analysis and Projected Changes of Agroclimatological Indices Across West Africa Based on High‐Resolution Regional Climate Model Simulations

Performance Analysis and Projected Changes of Agroclimatological Indices Across West Africa Based on High‐Resolution Regional Climate Model Simulations

Assessing Multidomain Overlaps and Grand Ensemble Generation in CORDEX Regional Projections

A Consistent Methodology to Evaluate Temperature and Heat Wave Future Projections for Cities: A Case Study for Lisbon

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