Assessing Multidomain Overlaps and Grand Ensemble Generation in CORDEX Regional Projections

Legasa, Mikel N.; Fernández, Jesús Fernández; Herrera, Sixto; Iturbide, Maialen; Moufouma-Okia, Wilfran; Zhai, Panmao; Driouech, Fatima; Gutiérrez, José Manuel

doi:10.1029/2019gl086799

Cited by 11 publications

(15 citation statements)

References 24 publications

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“…Large multimodel and multiscenario ensembles are expected to add value and provide a more representative range of possible futures [7,49]. In this respect, downscaling of multiple global models and future pathways or scenarios are needed.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

21st Century Projections of Extreme Precipitation Indicators for Cyprus

2020

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According to observational and model-based studies, the eastern Mediterranean region is one of the most prominent climate-change hotspots in the world. The combined effect of warming and drying is expected to augment the regional impacts of global warming. In addition to changes in mean climatic conditions, global warming is likely to induce changes in several aspects of extreme rainfall such as duration and magnitude. In this context, we explore the impact of climate change on precipitation with the use of several indicators. We focus on Cyprus, a water-stressed island located in the eastern Mediterranean Basin. Our results are derived from a new high-resolution simulation for the 21st century, which is driven by a “business-as-usual” scenario. In addition to a strong temperature increase (up to 4.1 °C), our analysis highlights that, on average for the island, most extreme precipitation indicators decrease, suggesting a transition to much drier conditions. The absolute daily rainfall maxima exhibit strong local variability, indicating the need for high resolution simulations to understand the potential impacts on future flooding.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

21st Century Projections of Extreme Precipitation Indicators for Cyprus

2020

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“…The regional warming is found to follow a differential seasonal response with a much stronger temperature increase projected for the boreal summer compared to the rest of the year 4 . As a result of the rising warm-season temperatures, heatwaves can be expected to increase in frequency, magnitude, and duration [5][6][7][8] . The observed trends in heat extremes corroborate the model simulations and the transition to much warmer conditions, which started in the 1980s [9][10][11][12][13][14][15][16][17] .…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Business-as-usual will lead to super and ultra-extreme heatwaves in the Middle East and North Africa

et al. 2021

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Global climate projections suggest a significant intensification of summer heat extremes in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA). To assess regional impacts, and underpin mitigation and adaptation measures, robust information is required from climate downscaling studies, which has been lacking for the region. Here, we project future hot spells by using the Heat Wave Magnitude Index and a comprehensive ensemble of regional climate projections for MENA. Our results, for a business-as-usual pathway, indicate that in the second half of this century unprecedented super- and ultra-extreme heatwave conditions will emerge. These events involve excessively high temperatures (up to 56 °C and higher) and will be of extended duration (several weeks), being potentially life-threatening for humans. By the end of the century, about half of the MENA population (approximately 600 million) could be exposed to annually recurring super- and ultra-extreme heatwaves. It is expected that the vast majority of the exposed population (>90%) will live in urban centers, who would need to cope with these societally disruptive weather conditions.

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“…Similar multi-domain approaches have already been used for different regions, e.g. by Zittis et al (2019) and Legasa et al (2020).…”

Section: Climate Datamentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Following Spinoni et al (2020) we define that the change in an index is significant in sign if two-thirds of simulations agree on the sign of change, significant in magnitude if the ensemble median change is larger than the inter-model variability over 1981-2010, robust if the change is both significant in sign and magnitude, uncertain if the change is not significant in sign nor in magnitude. Results are shown at different aggregation scales: global, continental, and macro-regional, and macro-regions are defined according to Iturbide et al (2020) and are shown in FigureS2 of SM.…”

Section: Drought Hazard Indicators and Derived Parametersmentioning

confidence: 99%

Global exposure of population and land‐use to meteorological droughts under different warming levels and SSPs: A CORDEX‐based study

Spinoni

Barbosa

Bucchignani

et al. 2021

Intl Journal of Climatology

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Global warming is likely to cause a progressive drought increase in some regions, but how population and natural resources will be affected is still underexplored. This study focuses on global population and land-use (forests, croplands, pastures) exposure to meteorological drought hazard in the 21 st century, expressed as frequency and severity of drought events. As input, we use a large ensemble of climate simulations from the Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment (CORDEX), population projections from the NASA-SEDAC dataset, and land-use projections from the Land-Use Harmonization 2 project for 1981-2100. The exposure to drought hazard is presented for five SSPs (SSP1-SSP5) at four Global Warming Levels (GWLs, from 1.5° to 4°C).Results show that considering only Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI; based on precipitation), the combination SSP3-GWL4 projects the largest fraction of the global population (14%) to experience an increase in drought frequency and severity (versus 1981-2010), with this value increasing to 60% if temperature is considered (indirectly included in the Standardized Precipitation-Evapotranspiration Index, SPEI). With SPEI, considering the highest GWL for each SSP, 8 (for SSP2, SSP4, and SSP5) and 11 (SSP3) billion people, i.e. more than 90%, will be affected by at least one unprecedented drought.For SSP5 (fossil-fueled development) at GWL 4°C, approximately 2•10 6 km 2 of forests and croplands (respectively 6% and 11%) and 1.5•10 6 km 2 of pastures (19%) will be exposed to increased drought frequency and severity according to SPI, but for SPEI this extent will rise to 17•10 6 km 2 of forests (49%), 6•10 6 km 2 of pastures (78%), and 12•10 6 km 2 of croplands (67%), with mid-latitudes being the most affected areas. The projected likely increase of drought frequency and severity significantly increases population and land-use exposure to drought, even at low GWLs, thus extensive mitigation and adaptation efforts are needed to avoid the most severe impacts of climate change.

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Assessing Multidomain Overlaps and Grand Ensemble Generation in CORDEX Regional Projections

Cited by 11 publications

References 24 publications

21st Century Projections of Extreme Precipitation Indicators for Cyprus

21st Century Projections of Extreme Precipitation Indicators for Cyprus

Business-as-usual will lead to super and ultra-extreme heatwaves in the Middle East and North Africa

Global exposure of population and land‐use to meteorological droughts under different warming levels and SSPs: A CORDEX‐based study

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