Considering sink strength to model crop production under elevated atmospheric CO2

Vanuytrecht, Eline; Raes, Dirk; Willems, Patrick

doi:10.1016/j.agrformet.2011.07.011

Cited by 66 publications

(42 citation statements)

References 54 publications

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“…The aforementioned moderate reduction in the amount of rainfall is not anticipated to pose significant adverse impacts on maize production in the short-term future. It is understood that under well watered conditions maize responds positively to increasing CO 2 levels, up to a point, because of an increase in canopy size which translates to higher productivity and yields44 through CO 2 fertilisation6. These findings for the 2020s contradict earlier CC impact studies in Lilongwe District which reported declines in maize yields in the short-term future3045.…”

Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 90%

“…Accelerated crop growth can lead to high nutrient requirement and result in soil nitrogen deficiency6. We, therefore, envision that in the short-term future, the increasing demand for food and the positive impacts of CC on maize growth could adversely impact soil fertility.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…The nature of climate change (CC) impacts is variable4 and will drive varying responses in crops and regions around the world5. CC is expected to have positive and negative impacts on crop yields16, that will have important consequences for food prices and food security7. The risks to adverse effects of CC are expected to be greatest in Least Developed Countries (LDCs), particularly in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) and South East Asia8 with the most vulnerable communities3910.…”

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confidence: 99%

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Future climate impacts on maize farming and food security in Malawi

Stevens

Madani

2016

Sci Rep

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Agriculture is the mainstay of Malawi’s economy and maize is the most important crop for food security. As a Least Developed Country (LDC), adverse effects of climate change (CC) on agriculture in Malawi are expected to be significant. We examined the impacts of CC on maize production and food security in Malawi’s dominant cereal producing region, Lilongwe District. We used five Global Circulation Models (GCMs) to make future (2011 to 2100) rainfall and temperature projections and simulated maize yields under these projections. Our future rainfall projections did not reveal a strong increasing or decreasing trend, but temperatures are expected to increase. Our crop modelling results, for the short-term future, suggest that maize farming might benefit from CC. However, faster crop growth could worsen Malawi’s soil fertility problem. Increasing temperature could drive lower maize yields in the medium to long-term future. Consequently, up to 12% of the population in Lilongwe District might be vulnerable to food insecurity by the end of the century. Measures to increase soil fertility and moisture must be developed to build resilience into Malawi’s agriculture sector.

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Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 90%

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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confidence: 99%

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Future climate impacts on maize farming and food security in Malawi

Stevens

Madani

2016

Sci Rep

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“…Miglietta et al (1998) indicated an increase of tuber yield of 10% for every 100 ppm of CO 2 . The FACE experiments in Italy presented in this study were also used to test the performance of the models LPOTCO and AQUACROP (Wolf and Van Oijen, 2003;Vanuytrecht et al, 2011). The observed yield response of potato to increased CO 2 in these experiments was high but underestimated in the SUBSTOR-potato simulations.…”

Section: Simulations Under High Temperaturesmentioning

confidence: 99%

Performance of the SUBSTOR-potato model across contrasting growing conditions

Raymundo

Asseng

Prassad

et al. 2017

Field Crops Research

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“…A similar study by Kersebaum and Nendel (2014), also for winter wheat and varying sites in Germany, using the same climate model and scenario as the presented study, reported yield decreases by -11.6% if the effect was neglected and depending on the algorithm (three tested in total), 0.9 to 6.0% yield increases if the [CO 2 ] effect was included. Apart from this, several articles exist that deal with [CO 2 ] and crop yields on different scales and approaches (Ziska and Bunce, 2007;Högy and Fangmeier, 2008;Soussana et al, 2010;Vanuytrecht et al, 2011;Weigel and Manderscheid, 2012;Tausz et al, 2013;Wang et al, 2013).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Atmospheric CO2 fertilization effects on biomass yields of 10 crops in northern Germany

Degener

2015

Front. Environ. Sci.

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The quality and quantity of the influence that atmospheric CO 2 has on crop growth is still a matter of debate. This study's aim is to estimate if [CO 2 ] will have an effect on biomass yields at all, to quantify and spatially locate the effects and to explore if an elevated photosynthesis rate or water-use-efficiency is predominantly responsible. This study uses a numerical carbon-based crop model (BioSTAR) to estimate biomass yields within the administrative boundaries of Niedersachsen in Northern Germany. Ten crops are included (winter grains: wheat, barley, rye, triticale-early, medium, late maize variety-sunflower, sorghum, spring wheat), modeled annually for the entire twenty-first century on 91,014 separate sites. Modeling was conducted twice, once with an annually adapted [CO 2 ] concentration according to the SRES-A1B scenario and once with a fixed concentration of 390 ppm to separate the influence of [CO 2 ] from that of the other input variables. Rising [CO 2 ] concentrations will play a central role in keeping future yields of all crops above or around today's level. Differences in yields between modeling with fixed or adapted [CO 2 ] can be as high as 60% toward the century's end. Generally, yields will increase when [CO 2 ] rises and decline when it is kept constant. As C 4 -crops are equivalently affected it is presumed that an elevated efficiency in water use is the main responsible factor for all plants.

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Considering sink strength to model crop production under elevated atmospheric CO2

Cited by 66 publications

References 54 publications

Future climate impacts on maize farming and food security in Malawi

Future climate impacts on maize farming and food security in Malawi

Performance of the SUBSTOR-potato model across contrasting growing conditions

Atmospheric CO2 fertilization effects on biomass yields of 10 crops in northern Germany

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