Conservation Planning with Uncertain Climate Change Projections

Kujala, Heini; Moilanen, Atte; Araújo, Miguel B.; Cabeza, Mar

doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0053315

Cited by 149 publications

(185 citation statements)

References 61 publications

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“…Because the effect of CBA on λ was confounded with precipitation, we generated population projections under typical (50th percentile), low (25th percentile), and high (75th percentile) levels of precipitation. These levels bracket a range of climate model predictions in the Great Basin from south to north (15,36,37), which is important, given model uncertainties and scale dependency (38). By 2044, we projected a decrease in sage-grouse populations to 43% (95% CI: 23-64%) of their current size when averaged across all R&R classes and assuming no change in precipitation (Fig.…”

Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 69%

Wildfire, climate, and invasive grass interactions negatively impact an indicator species by reshaping sagebrush ecosystems

Coates

Ricca

Prochazka

et al. 2016

Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. U.S.A.

138

183

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Iconic sagebrush ecosystems of the American West are threatened by larger and more frequent wildfires that can kill sagebrush and facilitate invasion by annual grasses, creating a cycle that alters sagebrush ecosystem recovery post disturbance. Thwarting this accelerated grass–fire cycle is at the forefront of current national conservation efforts, yet its impacts on wildlife populations inhabiting these ecosystems have not been quantified rigorously. Within a Bayesian framework, we modeled 30 y of wildfire and climatic effects on population rates of change of a sagebrush-obligate species, the greater sage-grouse, across the Great Basin of western North America. Importantly, our modeling also accounted for variation in sagebrush recovery time post fire as determined by underlying soil properties that influence ecosystem resilience to disturbance and resistance to invasion. Our results demonstrate that the cumulative loss of sagebrush to direct and indirect effects of wildfire has contributed strongly to declining sage-grouse populations over the past 30 y at large spatial scales. Moreover, long-lasting effects from wildfire nullified pulses of sage-grouse population growth that typically follow years of higher precipitation. If wildfire trends continue unabated, model projections indicate sage-grouse populations will be reduced to 43% of their current numbers over the next three decades. Our results provide a timely example of how altered fire regimes are disrupting recovery of sagebrush ecosystems and leading to substantial declines of a widespread indicator species. Accordingly, we present scenario-based stochastic projections to inform conservation actions that may help offset the adverse effects of wildfire on sage-grouse and other wildlife populations.

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Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 69%

Wildfire, climate, and invasive grass interactions negatively impact an indicator species by reshaping sagebrush ecosystems

Coates

Ricca

Prochazka

et al. 2016

Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. U.S.A.

138

183

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

show abstract

“…It is important to recognise that concepts and data underpinning scenarios may be subject to high levels of uncertainty, the effects of which may be difficult to track in large models (e.g. climate change projections; Kujala et al, 2013). Often, the relative likelihood of each future scenario will not be known (Peterson et al, 2003), so the final likelihood of collapse may be expressed as a range of values rather than a single estimate.…”

Section: Scenariosmentioning

confidence: 99%

Guidelines for the application of IUCN Red List of ecosystems categories and criteria

2015

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“…Other studies have used SDMs for conservation or restoration prioritization under climate uncertainty (Kujala et al 2013, Veloz et al 2013 and to assess alternatives for allocating conservation resources under different emissions scenarios (Carvalho et al 2011). Although these approaches have made considerable progress toward addressing the uncertainty associated with climate change projections, SDM research typically does not develop future scenarios in conjunction with a variety of stakeholders to account for other dynamics, which might interact with climate changes.…”

Section: Species Distribution Modelingmentioning

confidence: 99%

Integrating Research Tools to Support the Management of Social-Ecological Systems Under Climate Change

Miller¹,

Morisette²

2014

E&S

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ABSTRACT. Developing resource management strategies in the face of climate change is complicated by the considerable uncertainty associated with projections of climate and its impacts and by the complex interactions between social and ecological variables. The broad, interconnected nature of this challenge has resulted in calls for analytical frameworks that integrate research tools and can support natural resource management decision making in the face of uncertainty and complex interactions. We respond to this call by first reviewing three methods that have proven useful for climate change research, but whose application and development have been largely isolated: species distribution modeling, scenario planning, and simulation modeling. Species distribution models provide datadriven estimates of the future distributions of species of interest, but they face several limitations and their output alone is not sufficient to guide complex decisions for how best to manage resources given social and economic considerations along with dynamic and uncertain future conditions. Researchers and managers are increasingly exploring potential futures of social-ecological systems through scenario planning, but this process often lacks quantitative response modeling and validation procedures. Simulation models are well placed to provide added rigor to scenario planning because of their ability to reproduce complex system dynamics, but the scenarios and management options explored in simulations are often not developed by stakeholders, and there is not a clear consensus on how to include climate model outputs. We see these strengths and weaknesses as complementarities and offer an analytical framework for integrating these three tools. We then describe the ways in which this framework can help shift climate change research from useful to usable.

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Conservation Planning with Uncertain Climate Change Projections

Cited by 149 publications

References 61 publications

Wildfire, climate, and invasive grass interactions negatively impact an indicator species by reshaping sagebrush ecosystems

Wildfire, climate, and invasive grass interactions negatively impact an indicator species by reshaping sagebrush ecosystems

Guidelines for the application of IUCN Red List of ecosystems categories and criteria

Integrating Research Tools to Support the Management of Social-Ecological Systems Under Climate Change

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