Consequences of Son Preference in a Low-Fertility Society: Imbalance of the Sex Ratio at Birth in Korea

Standard-Nutzungsbedingungen:Die Dokumente auf EconStor dürfen zu eigenen wissenschaftlichen Zwecken und zum Privatgebrauch gespeichert und kopiert werden.Sie dürfen die Dokumente nicht für öffentliche oder kommerzielle Zwecke vervielfältigen, öffentlich ausstellen, öffentlich zugänglich machen, vertreiben oder anderweitig nutzen.Sofern die Verfasser die Dokumente unter Open-Content-Lizenzen (insbesondere CC-Lizenzen) zur Verfügung gestellt haben sollten, gelten abweichend von diesen Nutzungsbedingungen die in der dort genannten Lizenz gewährten Nutzungsrechte. Terms of use: Documents in Future Fertility in Low Fertility Countries AbstractThis paper discusses results of the global survey of experts on the future of low fertility in low-fertility countries. The survey was coordinated by the Wittgenstein Centre for Demography and Global Human Capital as a part of an effort to produce global argumentbased population projections by age, sex and level of education. First we give an overview of fertility changes in major low-fertility regions. Next we outline main theoretical arguments and review a wide range of factors contributing to fertility change and variation in contemporary low-fertility settings. Subsequently, we present survey results based on 184 assessments of over 170 experts analysing 41 countries with currently low or aroundreplacement fertility and Israel. These experts provided forecasts of period total fertility rate (TFR) in 2030 and 2050, estimated 80% confidence interval of their forecast and assessed the validity and potential impact on fertility of 46 factors. We also compare expert-derived projections of the TFR trends with the forecasts formulated by the UN World Population Prospects in 2010. The survey results in combination with the feedback provided by the invited experts then serve as a basis for formulating a set of projection scenarios for all low fertility countries up until 2050, which are additionally expanded (in a simpler form) through 2200. We present these scenarios and discuss past changes in fertility differences by level of education and their potential future trends in main regions. Presented analyses and projections indicate that a global convergence of fertility to around replacement level, envisioned in the UN projections, appears unlikely. Continuing differentiation combined with partial convergence in fertility towards lower levels is suggested as a more plausible scenario, with East Asia (including China) as well as Russia expected to have sustained very low fertility below 1.5 through 2050.

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“…In contrast, fertility behaviour in Japan is not associated with son preference (Park and Cho 1995).…”

Section: East Asian Countries and Territoriesmentioning

confidence: 86%

Future Fertility in Low Fertility Countries

Basten

Sobotka

Zeman

et al. 2014

World Population and Human Capital in the Twenty-First Century

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“…Thus, female births after a certain number of children are suppressed by sex-selective abortions (Park and Cho 1995).…”

Section: Sex-selective Abortionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Sibling size and investment in children’s education: an asian instrument

2007

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Standard-Nutzungsbedingungen:Die Dokumente auf EconStor dürfen zu eigenen wissenschaftlichen Zwecken und zum Privatgebrauch gespeichert und kopiert werden.Sie dürfen die Dokumente nicht für öffentliche oder kommerzielle Zwecke vervielfältigen, öffentlich ausstellen, öffentlich zugänglich machen, vertreiben oder anderweitig nutzen.Sofern die Verfasser die Dokumente unter Open-Content-Lizenzen (insbesondere CC-Lizenzen) zur Verfügung gestellt haben sollten, gelten abweichend von diesen Nutzungsbedingungen die in der dort genannten Lizenz gewährten Nutzungsrechte. The Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA) in Bonn is a local and virtual international research center and a place of communication between science, politics and business. IZA is an independent nonprofit company supported by Deutsche Post World Net. The center is associated with the University of Bonn and offers a stimulating research environment through its research networks, research support, and visitors and doctoral programs. IZA engages in (i) original and internationally competitive research in all fields of labor economics, (ii) development of policy concepts, and (iii) dissemination of research results and concepts to the interested public. Terms of use: Documents in D I S C U S S I O N P A P E R S E R I E SIZA Discussion Papers often represent preliminary work and are circulated to encourage discussion.Citation of such a paper should account for its provisional character. A revised version may be available directly from the author. This study consistently estimates the trade-off between child quantity and quality by exploiting exogenous variation in fertility due to son preferences. Under son preferences, childbearing and fertility timing are determined conditional on the first child's gender. For the sample of South Korean households I find strong evidence of unobserved heterogeneity across households. However, sibling size has adverse effects on per-child investment in education, in particular when fertility is high.JEL Classification: D13, J13, O12

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“…Therefore, the use of prenatal strategies as measured by sex ratios at birth, and/or women's fertility behavior at low parities as measured by contraceptive use or parity progression, are often appropriate measures of gender preferences for children in lower fertility/transitioning societies. High sex ratios at birth reflecting son preference have been detected in China (e.g., Zeng et al 1993), India (e.g., Arnold, Kishor, and Roy 2002), and South Korea (e.g., Park and Cho 1995). Son preference has also been observed in connection with the cessation of childbearing among women in countries such as Bangladesh (e.g., Rahman and DaVanzo 1993), Egypt (e.g., Vignoli 2006), India (e.g., Arokiasamy 2002), Nepal (e.g., Morgan and Niraula 1995), South Korea (e.g., Larsen, Chung, and Das Gupta 1998), and Vietnam (e.g., Bélanger et al 2003).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Variations in attitudinal gender preferences for children across 50 less-developed countries

Fuse¹

2010

DemRes

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While a number of studies have examined gender preferences for children by studying behavioral measures, such as skewed sex ratios, sex imbalance in infant mortality, and sibling size/order; attitudinal measures have been analyzed less systematically. Using 50 Demographic and Health Surveys conducted between 2000 and 2008, this paper seeks to advance our understanding of gender preferences in developing countries by examining attitudinal measures cross-nationally. This study's findings show that, while balance preference is the most common type of preference in the vast majority of countries, countries/regions vary in the prevalence of son and daughter preferences. A preference for sons is not always found; and, indeed, a preference for daughters is shown to prevail in many societies.

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Consequences of Son Preference in a Low-Fertility Society: Imbalance of the Sex Ratio at Birth in Korea

Cited by 314 publications

References 31 publications

Future Fertility in Low Fertility Countries

Future Fertility in Low Fertility Countries

Sibling size and investment in children’s education: an asian instrument

Variations in attitudinal gender preferences for children across 50 less-developed countries

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