Consequences Identification in Forecasting and Ethical Decision-Making

Abstract

Forecasting involves predicting outcomes based on observations of the situation at hand. We examined the impact of the number and types of consequences considered on the quality of ethical decision-making. Undergraduates role-played several ethical problems in which they forecast potential outcomes and made decisions. Performance pressure (difficult demands placed on the situation) and interpersonal conflict (clashes among people in the problem situation) were manipulated within each problem scenario. The results indicated that the identification of potential consequences was positively associated with both higher quality forecasts and more ethical decisions. Neither performance pressure nor interpersonal conflict affected the quality of forecasts or decisions. Theoretical and practical implications of these findings and the use of this research approach are discussed.

Forecasting and Ethical Decision Making: What Matters?

“…First, consistent with Stenmark and colleagues (Stenmark et al, 2010;Stenmark et al, 2011), these results indicate that forecasting is critically important to EDM. Ethical problems are likely to have significant outcomes for individuals and groups, at many different levels.…”

“…Thus, the problem solution is likely to be focused on addressing or changing those variables in the environment that are likely to have the greatest impact on the people and groups involved. Furthermore, consistent with Stenmark et al (2011), the relationship between critical consequences identification and EDM appears to be fully mediated by forecast quality. Thus, the strategy of identifying critical consequences appears be associated with higher forecast quality, which in turn is associated with better EDM.…”

“…This is consistent with the Stenmark et al (2010) study, which found that considering a larger number of causes was not related to forecast quality or ethicality of decisions. In addition, in the Stenmark et al (2011) study, considering a larger number of consequences was not found to be related to better ethical decisions. These findings imply that, as suggested in the Stenmark et al (2011) study, with EDM, it is important to focus on a limited amount of key information, because ethical problems are complex, dynamic problems, often involving a number of other people.…”

“…On the other hand, mounting evidence seems to suggest that performance pressure may not impact forecasting and EDM (Byrne et al, 2010;Stenmark et al, 2010;Stenmark et al, 2011). These studies seem to suggest that these processes are not impacted by this situational variable, despite the fact that many other, similarly complex processes are, in fact, negatively impacted by pressure.…”

“…Although most of the available research on forecasting has involved planning and creative problem solving, it is likely that forecasting is an important element in many complex cognitive processes. For EDM, in particular, forecasting has been demonstrated to be a critical process involved in problem solving (Stenmark et al, 2010;Stenmark et al, 2011), perhaps because ethical decisions often have major consequences, for the decision maker, and often for a number of other people and groups involved in the problem. In keeping with prior research findings, the following hypothesis is warranted:…”