Connecting the dots: Illusory pattern perception predicts belief in conspiracies and the supernatural

Abstract

A common assumption is that belief in conspiracy theories and supernatural phenomena are grounded in illusory pattern perception. In the present research we systematically tested this assumption. Study 1 revealed that such irrational beliefs are related to perceiving patterns in randomly generated coin toss outcomes. In Study 2, pattern search instructions exerted an indirect effect on irrational beliefs through pattern perception. Study 3 revealed that perceiving patterns in chaotic but not in structured paintings predicted irrational beliefs. In Study 4, we found that agreement with texts supporting paranormal phenomena or conspiracy theories predicted pattern perception. In Study 5, we manipulated belief in a specific conspiracy theory. This manipulation influenced the extent to which people perceive patterns in world events, which in turn predicted unrelated irrational beliefs. We conclude that illusory pattern perception is a central cognitive mechanism accounting for conspiracy theories and supernatural beliefs.

Suspicious binds: Conspiracy thinking and tenuous perceptions of causal connections between co‐occurring and spuriously correlated events

“…Of most interest to the present article, Chavez's conspiratorial musings appealed explicitly to an apparent pattern in events. In so doing, they conform to the theory that conspiracy thinking is linked to the motivated perception of order and meaning in the environment (Marchlewska, Cichocka, and Kossowska, ; Quinby, ; Van Prooijen & Jostmann, ; van Prooijen, Douglas, & De Inocencio, ; Whitson, Galinsky, & Kay, ; Whitson & Galinsky, ). Crucially, Chavez did not stop by observing the pattern: He explicitly rejected the idea that it could be explained as a coincidence and implied that the events were causally connected—despite the causal connection being vague and implausible.…”

“…In contrast, van Prooijen et al. () found that conspiracy beliefs were related to measures of pattern perception including perceptions of non‐randomness (causal determination) in coin tosses and in world events. They also found that instructing participants to search for patterns in random strings of coin tosses increased pattern perception, which in turn was associated with increased conspiracy belief.…”

“…As van Prooijen et al. (), p. 321 wrote:

Illusory pattern perception emerges because people often have difficulty recognizing when stimuli do or do not occur through a random process… Put differently, a random process often generates sequences that appear non‐random to the human mind, and that may even contain occasional symmetries or aesthetic regularities. As a result, it is difficult for people to appreciate the role of coincidence in generating these pattern‐like sequences.

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“…() and van Prooijen et al. () indicate the need for further research to clarify the conditions under which conspiracy thinking is related to pattern perception. Both sets of studies also leave an important question open: Namely, whether conspiracy thinking is related to faulty causal perceptions even in situations where events are not truly random.…”

Belief in conspiracy theories: Basic principles of an emerging research domain

“…Recent research has drawn heavily on these two key insights, by extensively testing how stable individual differences predict a tendency to believe conspiracy theories (Darwin, Neave, & Holmes, ; Imhoff & Bruder, ; Swami et al., ; Van Prooijen, ), what causal factors increase belief in conspiracy theories (e.g., Douglas & Sutton, ; Van Prooijen & Van Dijk, 2014; Whitson & Galinsky, ), what basic cognitive processes are involved when people perceive conspiracies (Douglas, Sutton, Callan, Dawtry, & Harvey, ; Van Prooijen, Douglas, & De Inocencio, ), and what the consequences are of believing conspiracy theories (Bartlett & Miller, ; Douglas & Leite, ; Jolley & Douglas, ,b). It is safe to say that the scientific study of conspiracy theories has been emerging over the past decade: Both the body of knowledge on this phenomenon, as well as the number of researchers actively working on it, has expanded rapidly.…”