Confronting a solar irradiance reconstruction with solar and stellar data

Judge, P. G.; Lockwood, G. W.; Radick, R. R.; Henry, Gregory W.; Шапиро, А. И.; Schmutz, W.; Lindsey, C.

doi:10.1051/0004-6361/201218903

Cited by 42 publications

(70 citation statements)

References 36 publications

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“…Recently, Shapiro et al (2011) and Judge et al (2012) also proposed TSI models based a comparison between solar irradiance reconstructions and sunlike-stellar data that show a TSI secular variability at least 3-to-6 times greater than Lean's TSI proxy, similar to those proposed by Hoyt and Schatten (1993). The Shapiro model also predicts a small TSI increase between the solar minima of 1986 and 1996, that is more consistent with the ACRIM 1980-2000 upward TSI pattern and contradicts PMOD.…”

Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 82%

ACRIM total solar irradiance satellite composite validation versus TSI proxy models

Scafetta

Willson²

2014

Astrophys Space Sci

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The satellite total solar irradiance (TSI) database provides a valuable record for investigating models of solar variation used to interpret climate changes. The 35-year ACRIM total solar irradiance (TSI) satellite composite time series has been updated using corrections to ACRIMSAT/ACRIM3 results for scattering and diffraction derived from recent testing at the Laboratory for Atmospheric and Space Physics/Total solar irradiance Radiometer Facility (LASP/TRF). The corrections lower the ACRIM3 scale by about 5000 ppm, in close agreement with the scale of SORCE/TIM results (solar constant ≈ 1361 W/m 2 ) but the relative variations and trends are not changed. Differences between the ACRIM and PMOD TSI composites, particularly the decadal trending during solar cycles 21-22, are tested against a set of solar proxy models, including analysis of Nimbus7/ERB and ERBS/ERBE results available to bridge the ACRIM Gap (1989Gap ( -1992. Our findings confirm the following ACRIM TSI composite features: (1) The validity of the TSI peak in the originally published ERB results in early 1979 during solar cycle 21; (2) The correctness of originally published ACRIM1 results during the SMM spin mode (1981)(1982)(1983)(1984); (3) The upward trend of originally published ERB results during the ACRIM Gap; (4) The occurrence of a significant upward TSI trend between the minima of solar cycles 21 and 22 and (5) a decreasing trend during solar cycles 22 -23. Our findings do not support the following PMOD TSI composite features: (1) The downward corrections to originally published ERB and ACRIM1 results during solar cycle 21; (2) A step function sensitivity change in ERB results at the end-of-September 1989; (3) the validity of ERBE's downward trend during the ACRIM Gap or (4) the use of ERBE results to bridge the ACRIM Gap. Our analysis provides a first order validation of the ACRIM TSI composite approach and its 0.037%/decade upward trend during solar cycles 21-22. The implications of increasing TSI during the global warming of the last two decades of the 20th century are that solar forcing of climate change may be a significantly larger factor than represented in the CMIP5 general circulation climate models.Cite: Scafetta, N., and R. C. Willson, 2014. ACRIM total solar irradiance satellite composite validation versus TSI proxy models. Astrophysics and Space Science 350(2), 421-442.

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Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 82%

ACRIM total solar irradiance satellite composite validation versus TSI proxy models

Scafetta

Willson²

2014

Astrophys Space Sci

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“…Solanki et al 2013) but it is presently unclear whether this field can contribute to the irradiance variability on the centennial timescale (see e.g. discussion in Judge et al 2012, and references therein). The ambiguity associated with this effect is an additional source of uncertainty in our estimate of the contributions of molecular and atomic lines to irradiance variability on the centennial timescale.…”

Section: Spectral Irradiance Variability On Different Timescalesmentioning

confidence: 99%

The role of the Fraunhofer lines in solar brightness variability

Шапиро

Solanki

Krivova

et al. 2015

A&A

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Context. The solar brightness varies on timescales from minutes to decades. A clear identification of the physical processes behind such variations is needed for developing and improving physics-based models of solar brightness variability and reconstructing solar brightness in the past. This is, in turn, important for better understanding the solar-terrestrial and solar-stellar connections. Aims. We estimate the relative contributions of the continuum, molecular, and atomic lines to the solar brightness variations on different timescales. Methods. Our approach is based on the assumption that variability of the solar brightness on timescales greater than a day is driven by the evolution of the solar surface magnetic field. We calculated the solar brightness variations employing the solar disc area coverage of magnetic features deduced from the MDI/SOHO observations. The brightness contrasts of magnetic features relative to the quiet Sun were calculated with a non-LTE radiative transfer code as functions of disc position and wavelength. By consecutive elimination of molecular and atomic lines from the radiative transfer calculations, we assessed the role of these lines in producing solar brightness variability. Results. We show that the variations in Fraunhofer lines define the amplitude of the solar brightness variability on timescales greater than a day and even the phase of the total solar irradiance variability over the 11-year cycle. We also demonstrate that molecular lines make substantial contribution to solar brightness variability on the 11-year activity cycle and centennial timescales. In particular, our model indicates that roughly a quarter of the total solar irradiance variability over the 11-year cycle originates in molecular lines. The maximum of the absolute spectral brightness variability on timescales greater than a day is associated with the CN violet system between 380 and 390 nm.

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“…The stronger reductions in TSI have been criticized as being too large (Feulner, 2011), but here we regard these estimates as an absolute lower bound in TSI. Judge et al (2012) found the Shapiro et al (2011) estimates to be within bounds set by current stellar data, however, likely have over-estimated quiet-Sun irradiance variations by about a factor of two, based upon a re-analysis of sub-mm data from the James Clerk Maxwell telescope. This is the basis for the WD and WDR scenarios 10 employed here.…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 66%

Implications of potential future grand solar minimum for ozone layer and climate

Arsenović¹,

Rozanov²,

Anet³

et al. 2017

Preprint

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Abstract. Continued anthropogenic greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions are expected to cause further global warming throughout the 21 st century. Understanding potential interferences with natural forcings is thus of great interest. Here we investigate the impact of a recently proposed 21 st century grand solar minimum on atmospheric chemistry and climate using the SOCOL3-10 MPIOM chemistry-climate model with interactive ocean. We examine several model simulations for the period 2000 -2199, following the greenhouse gas scenario RCP4.5, but with different solar forcings: the reference simulation is forced by perpetual repetition of solar cycle 23 until the year 2199, whereas the grand solar minimum simulations assume strong declines in solar activity of 3.5 and 6.5 W/m 2 with different durations. Decreased solar activity is found to yield up to a doubling of the GHG induced stratospheric and mesospheric cooling. Under the grand solar minimum scenario tropospheric temperatures are also 15 projected to decrease. On the global scale the reduced solar forcing compensates at most 15% of the expected greenhouse warming at the end of 21 st and around 25% at the end of 22 nd century. The regional effects are predicted to be stronger, in particular in northern high latitude winter. In the stratosphere, the reduced incoming ultraviolet radiation leads to less ozone production by up to 8%, which overcompensates the anticipated ozone increase due to reduced stratospheric temperatures and an acceleration of the Brewer-Dobson circulation. This, in turn, leads to a delay in total ozone column recovery from 20 anthropogenic chlorine-induced depletion, with a global ozone recovery to the pre-ozone hole values happening only upon completion of the grand solar minimum in the 22 nd century or later.

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Confronting a solar irradiance reconstruction with solar and stellar data

Cited by 42 publications

References 36 publications

ACRIM total solar irradiance satellite composite validation versus TSI proxy models

ACRIM total solar irradiance satellite composite validation versus TSI proxy models

The role of the Fraunhofer lines in solar brightness variability

Implications of potential future grand solar minimum for ozone layer and climate

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