Confinement as a two‐stage turning point: Do changes in identity or social structure predict subsequent changes in criminal activity?^*

Abstract

Scholars frequently characterize incarceration as a possible turning point in criminal activity. This implies a two‐stage process: 1) change in life‐course mechanisms around confinement and reentry result in 2) subsequent change in criminal activity relative to preconfinement. Following this model, we examine change in criminal activity, criminal identity, and social/structural challenges using data from the Prison Project, a cohort of adult males with short‐term confinement in the Netherlands in 2010–2011. Results of a novel test for within‐individual change in arrests from preconfinement to post‐reentry show that most individuals are stable—yet there is a substantial group who go down meaningfully and a much smaller group who go up. Even though changes in criminal identity from the intervening period do not predict these change groups, increases in social/structural challenges predict those who go up in criminal activity. We build from prior work on desistance and reentry, contrasting our findings and highlighting the unique insight gained from, as well as challenges of, measuring individual change within our two‐stage turning point model. Although life‐course mechanisms often correspond with changes in criminal activity concurrently, identifying individual changes that are predictors of subsequent shifts in criminal offending remains elusive.

Police contact and future orientation from adolescence to young adulthood: Findings from the Pathways to Desistance Study

“…Criminal justice contact itself has also been conceptualized as a turning point (Laub & Sampson, 2019), with the bulk of this research considering how adult incarceration facilitates criminal offending (Boman & Mowen, 2018; Frisch, 2018; Hickert et al., 2021). Research has also noted, however, that police contact—especially during adolescence and young adulthood—can operate as a pivotal life‐course event (Doherty et al., 2016; Lopes et al., 2012; Novak, 2019; Schmidt et al., 2015; Wiesner et al., 2010; Wiley, 2015), with this research suggesting that “the enduring effects of early formal police intervention throughout the life course … affect not only subsequent criminal behavior but also critical noncriminal outcomes” (Lopes et al., 2012, p. 457).…”

Reflections on Choice and Agency in Context: a Reply

“…In their excellent article assessing how changes in identity and/or social structure predict subsequent changes in criminal activity with data from Dutch offenders, Hickert et al ( 2021 ) observe that there is a “renewed debate on agency/identity (Paternoster, 2017 ) versus external factors (Cullen, 2017 ) in behavior change [that] has led to recent discourse advocating for models that integrate internal and external factors (e.g., Brezina, 2019; Piquero, 2020 )” (p. 102, emphasis in original). Both Brezina and I have attempted to find some common ground in the positions of Paternoster and Cullen, which I remain convinced offer more to criminologists in tandem than in isolation.…”

Transformational learning and identity shift: Evidence from a campus behind bars

“…Farrall and Maruna, 2004;Giordano et al, 2002;Paternoster and Bushway, 2009;Rumgay, 2004;Healy, 2013). Put simply, these theories posit that individuals move "from offender to non-offender" in their self-concept (Maruna, 2001), resulting in "positive identity transformations that correspond with the exercise of agency" (Hickert et al, 2021).…”

“…Shifts in identity and self-efficacy are central to models of desistance from crime (Healy, 2013 and Hickert et al, 2021), as people “break from the past” and glimpse a possible future self (Paternoster and Bushway, 2009; Healy, 2013; Bushway and Paternoster, 2014). In fact, research on desistance has cohered around models of identity change (e.g.…”

“…Our findings have implications for both research and practice. Extant literature suggests that shifts in mindset and identity can play a critical role in desistance from criminality (Maruna, 2001, Shapland and Bottoms, 2011, LeBel et al, 2008, Stone, 2016 and assist in the process of successful reentry (Opsal, 2012, Hickert et al, 2021. However, existing research falls short in two important ways.…”