Confidence levels for tsunami-inundation limits in northern Oregon inferred from a 10,000-year history of great earthquakes at the Cascadia subduction zone

Priest, George R.; Goldfinger, Chris; Wang, Kelin; Witter, Robert C.; Zhang, Yinglong; Baptista, Antoniò M.

doi:10.1007/s11069-009-9453-5

Cited by 49 publications

(77 citation statements)

References 65 publications

(108 reference statements)

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“…In the first, we use the method of Goldfinger et al (2012) but with different rupture widths. The rupture widths used by Goldfinger et al (2012) were inferred from published thermal models (Hyndman and Wang, 1995;Flück et al, 1997), GPS-based models (McCaffrey et al, 2007), and the structural transition from contraction to extension (Priest et al, 2009). However, episodic tremor and slip (ETS) data have been interpreted to suggest that future coseismic rupture might extend to 25 km depth, or ∼60 km inland of the Pacific coast, rather than stopping offshore at 15 km depth (Chapman and Melbourne, 2009).…”

Section: Magnitude Of Cascadia Earthquakesmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Some GPS-based models show coupling of the outer accretionary wedge (e.g., McCaffrey et al, 2013), consistent with our assumption. But it is also possible that significant parts of the up-dip accretionary wedge are uncoupled, as discussed in Clarke and Carver (1992), Goldfinger et al (1992Goldfinger et al ( , 1997, and Priest et al (2009). For the rigidity, we use 30 GPa.…”

Section: Magnitude-frequency Distributions For the Cascadia Regionmentioning

confidence: 99%

See 1 more Smart Citation

Magnitude Limits of Subduction Zone Earthquakes

Rong¹,

Jackson²,

Magistrale³

et al. 2014

Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America

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Maximum earthquake magnitude (m x ) is a critical parameter in seismic hazard and risk analysis. However, some recent large earthquakes have shown that most of the existing methods for estimating m x are inadequate. Moreover, m x itself is ill-defined because its meaning largely depends on the context, and it usually cannot be inferred using existing data without associating it with a time interval. In this study, we use probable maximum earthquake magnitude within a time period of interest, m p T, to replace m x . The term m p T contains not only the information of magnitude limit but also the occurrence rate of the extreme events. We estimate m p T for circumPacific subduction zones using tapered Gutenberg-Richter (TGR) distributions. The estimation of the two TGR parameters, β-value and corner magnitude (m c ), is performed using the maximum-likelihood method with the constraint from tectonic moment rate. To populate the TGR, the rates of smaller earthquakes are needed. We apply the Whole Earth model, a high-resolution global estimate of the rate of m ≥ 5 earthquakes, to estimate these rates. The uncertainties of m p T are calculated using Monte-Carlo simulation. Our results show that most of the circum-Pacific subduction zones can generate m ≥ 8:5 earthquakes over a 250-year interval, m ≥ 8:8 earthquakes over a 500-year interval, and m ≥ 9:0 earthquakes over a 10,000-year interval. For the Cascadia subduction zone, we include the 10,000-year paleoseismic record based on turbidite studies to supplement the limited instrumental earthquake data. Our results show that over a 500-year period, m ≥ 8:8 earthquakes are expected in this zone; over a 1000-year period, m ≥ 9:0 earthquakes are expected; and over a 10,000-year period, m ≥ 9:3 earthquakes are expected.

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Section: Magnitude Of Cascadia Earthquakesmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Magnitude-frequency Distributions For the Cascadia Regionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Magnitude Limits of Subduction Zone Earthquakes

Rong¹,

Jackson²,

Magistrale³

et al. 2014

Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America

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show abstract

“…These scenarios build on the results of a companion study of Cas-cadia tsunami inundation hazard at Cannon Beach, Oregon (Priest et al, 2009(Priest et al, , 2010, and they provide the foundation for tsunami inundation hazard maps for the entire ~580-km-long coast of Oregon. To evaluate our approach and explore the range of tsunami hazards, we focused on Bandon, Oregon, where the continental shelf becomes narrower and the deformation front approaches the coast of southern Oregon and northern California (Fig.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Simulated tsunami inundation for a range of Cascadia megathrust earthquake scenarios at Bandon, Oregon, USA

Witter

Zhang²,

Wang

et al. 2013

Geosphere

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Characterizations of tsunami hazards along the Cascadia subduction zone hinge on uncertainties in megathrust rupture models used for simulating tsunami inundation. To explore these uncertainties, we constructed 15 megathrust earthquake scenarios using rupture models that supply the initial conditions for tsunami simulations at Bandon, Oregon. Tsunami inundation varies with the amount and distribution of fault slip assigned to rupture models, including models where slip is partitioned to a splay fault in the accretionary wedge and models that vary the updip limit of slip on a buried fault. Constraints on fault slip come from onshore and offshore paleoseismological evidence. We rank each rupture model using a logic tree that evaluates a model's consistency with geological and geophysical data. The scenarios provide inputs to a hydrodynamic model, SELFE, used to simulate tsunami generation, propagation, and inundation on unstructured grids with <5-15 m resolution in coastal areas. Tsunami simulations delineate the likelihood that Cascadia tsunamis will exceed mapped inundation lines. Maximum wave elevations at the shoreline varied from ~4 m to 25 m for earthquakes with 9-44 m slip and M w 8.7-9.2. Simulated tsunami inundation agrees with sparse deposits left by the A.D. 1700 and older tsunamis. Tsunami simulations for large (22-30 m slip) and medium (14-19 m slip) splay fault scenarios encompass 80%-95% of all inundation scenarios and provide reasonable guidelines for landuse planning and coastal development. The maximum tsunami inundation simulated for the greatest splay fault scenario (36-44 m slip) can help to guide development of local tsunami evacuation zones.

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“…Subsequent to the 2004 event and with the more recent SZ tsunami events in Chile in 2010 and in Japan in 2011, there has been an increasing interest in developing PTHA. Studies have focused on regions throughout the Pacific Rim, including Japan (Burroughs and Tebbens, 2005;Annaka et al, 2007;Yanagisawa et al, 2007;Fukutani et al, 2015;and Goda and Song, 2016), the US Pacific Coast and Canada (Geist and Parsons, 2006;González et al, 2009;Thio and Somerville, 2009;Priest et al, 2010;Witter et al, 2013;Leonard et al, 2014;and Park and Cox, 2016), South China Sea (Liu et al, 2007;Li et al, 2016), New Zealand, and Australia (Power et al, 2007(Power et al, , 2013Burbidge et al, 2008;and Mueller et al, 2015), as well as places in Europe (Tinti et al, 2005;Grezio et al, 2010;Anita et al, 2012) and the Northwestern Indian Ocean (Thio et al, 2007;Heidarzadeh and Kijko, 2011). As explained in the study by see text footnote 1, the PTHA generally uses one of three approaches for the tsunami generation: (1) historical record approach, (2) logic-tree approach, and (3) random phase approach.…”

Section: Background and Literature Reviewmentioning

confidence: 99%

Probabilistic Seismic and Tsunami Hazard Analysis Conditioned on a Megathrust Rupture of the Cascadia Subduction Zone

Park

Cox

Alam

et al. 2017

Front. Built Environ.

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This paper presents a methodology for probabilistic hazard assessment for the multihazard seismic and tsunami phenomena [probabilistic seismic and tsunami hazard analysis (PSTHA)]. For this work, a full-rupture event along the Cascadia subduction zone is considered and the methodology is applied to a study area of Seaside, Oregon, which is located on the US Pacific Northwest coast. In this work, the annual exceedance probabilities (AEPs) of the tsunami intensity measures (IMs) are shown to be qualitatively dissimilar to the IMs of the seismic ground motion in the study area. Specifically, the spatial gradients for the tsunami IM are much stronger across the length scale of the study area owing to the physical differences of wave propagation and energy dissipation of the two mechanisms. Example results of probabilistic seismic hazard analysis and probabilistic tsunami hazard analysis are shown for three observation points in the study area of Seaside. For the seismic hazard, the joint mean annual rate of exceedance of IMs shows similar trends for the three observation points, even though for a given observation point there is a large scatter between two ground-motion IMs analyzed, which were peak ground acceleration (PGA) and spectral acceleration at a period of vibration of 0.3 s, i.e., PGA and S a (T 1 = 0.3 s). For the tsunami hazard, the joint AEP of maximum flow depth (h max ) and maximum momentum flux ((M F ) max ) shows a high correlation between the two IMs in the study area. The joint AEP at each of the three observation points follows a particular Froude number (Fr) due to the local site-specific conditions rather than the distributions of fault slip distributions used to generate the scenarios that are the basis of the AEP maps developed. The joint probability distribution of h max and (M F ) max throughout the study region falls between 0.1 ≤ Fr < 1.0 (i.e., the flow is subcritical), regardless of return interval (500-, 1,000-, and 2,500-year). However, the peak of the joint probability distribution with respect to h max and (M F ) max varies with the return interval, and the largest values of h max and (M F ) max were observed with the highest return intervals (2,500 years) as would be expected. The results of the PSTHA can be the basis for a probabilistic multi-hazard damage and loss assessment and help to evaluate the uncertainties of the multi-hazard assessments.

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Confidence levels for tsunami-inundation limits in northern Oregon inferred from a 10,000-year history of great earthquakes at the Cascadia subduction zone

Cited by 49 publications

References 65 publications

Magnitude Limits of Subduction Zone Earthquakes

Magnitude Limits of Subduction Zone Earthquakes

Simulated tsunami inundation for a range of Cascadia megathrust earthquake scenarios at Bandon, Oregon, USA

Probabilistic Seismic and Tsunami Hazard Analysis Conditioned on a Megathrust Rupture of the Cascadia Subduction Zone

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