Past earthquake rupture models used to explain paleoseismic estimates of coastal subsidence during the great A.D. 1700 Cascadia earthquake have assumed a uniform slip distribution along the megathrust. Here we infer heterogeneous slip for the Cascadia margin in A.D. 1700 that is analogous to slip distributions during instrumentally recorded great subduction earthquakes worldwide. The assumption of uniform distribution in previous rupture models was due partly to the large uncertainties of then available paleoseismic data used to constrain the models. In this work, we use more precise estimates of subsidence in 1700 from detailed tidal microfossil studies. We develop a 3‐D elastic dislocation model that allows the slip to vary both along strike and in the dip direction. Despite uncertainties in the updip and downdip slip extensions, the more precise subsidence estimates are best explained by a model with along‐strike slip heterogeneity, with multiple patches of high‐moment release separated by areas of low‐moment release. For example, in A.D. 1700, there was very little slip near Alsea Bay, Oregon (~44.4°N), an area that coincides with a segment boundary previously suggested on the basis of gravity anomalies. A probable subducting seamount in this area may be responsible for impeding rupture during great earthquakes. Our results highlight the need for more precise, high‐quality estimates of subsidence or uplift during prehistoric earthquakes from the coasts of southern British Columbia, northern Washington (north of 47°N), southernmost Oregon, and northern California (south of 43°N), where slip distributions of prehistoric earthquakes are poorly constrained.

Bradley Lake, on the southern Oregon coastal plain, records local tsunamis and seismic shaking on the Cascadia subduction zone over the last 7000 yr. Thirteen marine incursions delivered landward-thinning sheets of sand to the lake from nearshore, beach, and dune environments to the west. Following each incursion, a slug of marine water near the bottom of the freshwater lake instigated a few-year-to-several-decade period of a brackish (≤4‰ salinity) lake. Four additional disturbances without marine incursions destabilized sideslopes and bottom sediment, producing a suspension deposit that blanketed the lake bottom. Considering the magnitude and duration of the disturbances necessary to produce Bradley Lake's marine incursions, a local tsunami generated by a great earthquake on the Cascadia subduction zone is the only accountable mechanism. Extreme ocean levels must have been at least 5-8 m above sea level, and the cumulative duration of each marine incursion must have been at least 10 min. Disturbances without marine incursions require seismic shaking as well. Over the 4600 yr period when Bradley Lake was an optimum tsunami recorder, tsunamis from Cascadia plate-boundary earthquakes came in clusters. Between 4600 and 2800 cal yr B.P., tsunamis occurred at the average frequency of ~3-4 every 1000 yr. Then, starting ~2800 cal yr B.P., there was a 930-1260 yr interval with no tsunamis. That gap was followed by a ~1000 yr period with 4 tsunamis. In the last millennium, a 670-750 yr gap preceded the A.D. 1700 earthquake and tsunami. The A.D. 1700 earthquake may be the fi rst of a new cluster of plate-boundary earthquakes and accompanying tsunamis. Local tsunamis entered Bradley Lake an average of every 390 yr, whereas the portion of the Cascadia plate boundary that underlies Bradley Lake ruptured in a great earthquake less frequently, about once every 500 yr. Therefore, the entire length of the subduction zone does not rupture in every earthquake, and Bradley Lake has recorded earthquakes caused by rupture along the entire length of the Cascadia plate boundary as well as earthquakes caused by rupture of shorter segments of the boundary. The tsunami record from Bradley Lake indicates that at times, most recently ~1700 yr B.P., overlapping or adjoining segments of the Cascadia plate boundary ruptured within decades of each other.

Cascadia subduction zone earthquakes dropped tidal marshes and low-lying forests to tidal flat elevations 12 times in the last 6700 cal yr B.P. at the Coquille River estuary in southwestern Oregon. The youngest buried soil, preserved in tidal marsh deposits near the estuary mouth, records the A.D. 1700 earthquake that ruptured the entire Cascadia margin. Eleven other buried marsh and upland soils found in tributary valleys of the estuary provide repeated evidence for rapid, lasting relative sea-level rise interpreted as coseismic subsidence. Additional stratigraphic criteria supporting a coseismic origin for soil burial include: lateral soil correlation over hundreds of meters, fossil diatom assemblages that indicate a maximum of 1.2-3.0 m of submergence, and sand deposits overlying buried soils consistent with earthquakeinduced tsunamis that traveled 10 km up the estuary. Twelve earthquakes occurred in the last 6500-6720 cal yr B.P., recurring on average every 570-590 yr. Intervals between earthquakes varied from a few hundred years to over 1000. Comparisons of the Coquille record to earthquake histories from adjacent sites in Oregon, southwestern Washington, and northwestern California suggest that at least two earthquakes in the last 4000 yr did not rupture the entire length of the subduction zone. An earthquake 760-1140 cal yr B.P. in southwestern Washington may have ruptured as far south as Coos Bay but probably stopped before it reached the Co

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Comparison of histories of great earthquakes and accompanying tsunamis at eight coastal sites suggests plate-boundary ruptures of varying length, implying great earthquakes of variable magnitude at the Cascadia subduction zone. Inference of rupture length relies on degree of overlap on radiocarbon age ranges for earthquakes and tsunamis, and relative amounts of coseismic subsidence and heights of tsunamis. Written records of a tsunami in Japan provide the most conclusive evidence for rupture of much of the plate boundary during the earthquake of 26 January 1700. Cascadia stratigraphic evidence dating from about 1600 cal yr B.P., similar to that for the 1700 earthquake, implies a similarly long rupture with substantial subsidence and a high tsunami. Correlations are consistent with other long ruptures about 1350 cal yr B.P., 2500 cal yr B.P., 3400 cal yr B.P., 3800 cal yr B.P., 4400 cal yr B.P., and 4900 cal yr B.P. A rupture about 700–1100 cal yr B.P. was limited to the northern and central parts of the subduction zone, and a northern rupture about 2900 cal yr B.P. may have been similarly limited. Times of probable short ruptures in southern Cascadia include about 1100 cal yr B.P., 1700 cal yr B.P., 3200 cal yr B.P., 4200 cal yr B.P., 4600 cal yr B.P., and 4700 cal yr B.P. Rupture patterns suggest that the plate boundary in northern Cascadia usually breaks in long ruptures during the greatest earthquakes. Ruptures in southernmost Cascadia vary in length and recurrence intervals more than ruptures in northern Cascadia.

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24We compared foraminifera, flora and geochemical (δ 13 C , total organic content and 25 C:N) analyses to reconstruct the magnitude of coastal subsidence during the 26 AD1700 great megathrust earthquakes at the Cascadia subduction zone. Four 27 modern transects collected from three intertidal zones at Siletz Bay, Oregon, USA, 28 produced three elevation dependent groups in both the foraminifera and 29 geochemical datasets. Foraminiferal samples from the tidal flat and low marsh are 30 identified by M. fusca abundances of > 45%, middle and high marsh by M. fusca 31 abundances of < 45% and highest marsh by T. irregularis abundances > 25%. The 32 δ 13 C values from the geochemically defined groups decrease with increasing 33 elevation; -24.1 ± 1.7‰ in the tidal flat and low marsh; -27.3 ± 1.4‰ in the middle 34 and high marsh; and -29.6 ± 0.8‰ in the highest marsh samples. We applied these 35 modern foraminfera and geochemical distributions to a core that contained the AD 36 1700 earthquake. Both techniques produced similar results for the coseismic 37 subsidence (0.88 ± 0.39m and 0.71 ± 0.56m) suggesting that δ 13 C has potential as a 38 efficient proxy for use in paleoseismology. 39 40