Confidence Intervals and Survival Estimates

ObjectivesInterpretation of CIs in randomised clinical trials (RCTs) with treatment effects that are not statistically significant can distinguish between results that are ‘negative’ (the data are not consistent with a clinically meaningful treatment effect) or ‘inconclusive’ (the data remain consistent with the possibility of a clinically meaningful treatment effect). This interpretation is important to ensure that potentially beneficial treatments are not prematurely abandoned in future research or clinical practice based on invalid conclusions.DesignSystematic review of RCT reports published in 2014 in Annals of Internal Medicine, New England Journal of Medicine, JAMA, JAMA Internal Medicine and The Lancet (n=247).Results85 of 99 articles with statistically non-significant results reported CIs for the treatment effect. Only 17 of those 99 articles interpreted the CI. Of the 22 articles in which CIs indicated an inconclusive result, only four acknowledged that the study could not rule out a clinically meaningful treatment effect.ConclusionsInterpretation of CIs is important but occurs infrequently in study reports of trials with treatment effects that are not statistically significant. Increased author interpretation of CIs could improve application of RCT results. Reporting recommendations are provided.

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Confidence Intervals and Survival Estimates

Abstract: A majority of studies in major oncology journals do not report CI with survival estimates. The likelihood of reporting CI is associated with study type (prospective versus retrospective), use of chemotherapy, journal, and year of publication.

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Reporting of Uncertainty at the 2013 Annual Meeting of the American Society for Radiation Oncology

Interpretation of CIs in clinical trials with non-significant results: systematic review and recommendations

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