Conditions for intuitive expertise: A failure to disagree.

Kahneman, Daniel; Klein, Gary

doi:10.1037/a0016755

Cited by 1,747 publications

(1,488 citation statements)

References 63 publications

Supporting

Mentioning

1,345

Contrasting

Unclassified

Order By: Relevance

“…We believe this cognitive style translates into more accurate political forecasts through its association with better norms of thinking. Kahneman and Klein (2009) argued that for any type of skill to develop, two conditions must be present: (a) an environment with sufficient deterministic stability to permit learning, and (b) opportunities for practice. Skill development occurs to the extent that people care enough to engage in deliberative rehearsal (Ericsson, 2006).…”

Section: Drivers Of Prediction Accuracy In World Politicsmentioning

confidence: 99%

The psychology of intelligence analysis: Drivers of prediction accuracy in world politics.

Mellers¹,

Stone²,

Atanasov³

et al. 2015

Journal of Experimental Psychology: Applied

134

130

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

This article extends psychological methods and concepts into a domain that is as profoundly consequential as it is poorly understood: intelligence analysis. We report findings from a geopolitical forecasting tournament that assessed the accuracy of more than 150,000 forecasts of 743 participants on 199 events occurring over 2 years. Participants were above average in intelligence and political knowledge relative to the general population. Individual differences in performance emerged, and forecasting skills were surprisingly consistent over time. Key predictors were (a) dispositional variables of cognitive ability, political knowledge, and openmindedness; (b) situational variables of training in probabilistic reasoning and participation in collaborative teams that shared information and discussed rationales (Mellers, Ungar, et al., 2014); and (c) behavioral variables of deliberation time and frequency of belief updating. We developed a profile of the best forecasters; they were better at inductive reasoning, pattern detection, cognitive flexibility, and open-mindedness. They had greater understanding of geopolitics, training in probabilistic reasoning, and opportunities to succeed in cognitively enriched team environments. Last but not least, they viewed forecasting as a skill that required deliberate practice, sustained effort, and constant monitoring of current affairs. A t APA, we understand how challenging it can be for you to stay abreast of the latest and best academic research on psychology. Disciplines Finance and Financial Management | Social and Behavioral Sciences

show abstract

Section: Drivers Of Prediction Accuracy In World Politicsmentioning

confidence: 99%

The psychology of intelligence analysis: Drivers of prediction accuracy in world politics.

Mellers¹,

Stone²,

Atanasov³

et al. 2015

Journal of Experimental Psychology: Applied

134

130

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

show abstract

“…18 Second, patient intuition may assume increased credibility when there are significant limitations to the expertise of clinicians as may occur in the absence of consistent scientific evidence. [32][33][34] Medical evidence, even when available, is typically incomplete and provisional; 35 indeed "for most study designs and settings, it is more likely for a research claim to be false than true" (p.696). 36 Even when findings are internally valid, their translation to individualized patient care may be problematic.…”

Section: Credibilitymentioning

confidence: 99%

When Should Patient Intuition be Taken Seriously?

Buetow

Mintoft

2010

J GEN INTERN MED

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

As a style of information processing, intuition involves implicit perceptual and cognitive processes that can be quickly and automatically executed without conscious mental will, such that people know more than they can describe. Patient intuition can influence patient and clinician decision-making and behavior. However, physicians may not always see patient intuition as credible or important, and its management in the clinical setting is poorly understood. This paper takes a step toward suggesting conditions under which patient intuition should be taken seriously. These conditions relate to the credibility or accuracy of the intuitive beliefs held by the patient, and their significance to the patient. Credibility may be increased when the intuitions of patients (1) reflect their individualized knowledge, (2) can complement the common absence of scientific evidence in managing health problems, and (3) can quickly and effectively process key information in complex cognitive tasks. Even intuitions that lack credibility can be subjectively rational and meaningful to patients, and help to shape the decisions they and clinicians make.

show abstract

“…5 These illness scripts can be used to develop a basis for system 1 thinking in simple scenarios, but they also provide a way of analyzing more complicated presentations so that an expert can quickly decide when to switch to system 2 thinking. [3][4][5][6][7] Upon switching to system 2 thinking, RPD provides a framework for mentally simulating a diagnosis and treatment, and for predicting potential adverse outcomes. [1][2][3]6 Aortic dissection is a complex disease that does not always present as a "tearing chest pain radiating to the back."…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…The first approach employs intuitive or system 1 thinking. 2,3 In medicine, this approach involves pattern recognition compared against a fully formed illness script. What distinguishes experts in this case is that they have more completely developed illness scripts than do experienced non-experts.…”

Section: Jgimmentioning

confidence: 99%

NSTEMI or Not: A 59-Year-Old Man with Chest Pain and Troponin Elevation

et al. 2012

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

A 59-year-old African-American man with a history of hypertension, hyperlipidemia, and cerebrovascular disease presented to the emergency department complaining of chest pain. He stated that the pain began suddenly while he was seated at home several hours prior to presentation. He described the pain as throbbing, 9 out of 10 in intensity, substernal, and associated with nausea, diaphoresis, and dyspnea. He stated that the pain radiated to his left leg but not to his arm or jaw. The pain resolved spontaneously after an hour, but then recurred 3 hours later. He had never experienced pain like this before. He initially delayed coming to the hospital, expecting the chest pain to subside spontaneously again; but finally his family brought him in when he became disoriented and confused.

show abstract

Conditions for intuitive expertise: A failure to disagree.

Cited by 1,747 publications

References 63 publications

The psychology of intelligence analysis: Drivers of prediction accuracy in world politics.

The psychology of intelligence analysis: Drivers of prediction accuracy in world politics.

When Should Patient Intuition be Taken Seriously?

NSTEMI or Not: A 59-Year-Old Man with Chest Pain and Troponin Elevation

Contact Info

Product

Resources

About