Computerized Argument Delphi Technique

Abstract

The aim of this study is the computerization of the argument Delphi method. The Delphi method is mainly designed for qualitative prediction within a group of experts, where the experts make predictions and a facilitator controls these predictions until the experts end up with a level of consensus. Argument Delphi, as opposed to the classical Delphi model, is built on the contradictions of the ideas of the experts. Argument Delphi mainly focuses on a discussion topic and asks experts to create new arguments and criticize other arguments from other experts. After a certain level of contradiction, the method yields an amount of contradictory, criticized arguments and builds a decision over these antitheses, as in the Hegelian approach. This is the first time the argument Delphi method has been modeled in a graph of arguments and the problem of qualitative decision has been transferred into a graph problem using Delphi method. This paper is also the first time that argument aggregation and evaluation methods have been proposed. Moreover, the computerized version of argument Delphi is applied to real-world problems using crowd involvement through Facebook. The problem is defined as the prediction of petroleum prices for the end of year and more than 100 contributors from all around the world argued and criticized each other. This paper also discusses the findings of this case study. INDEX TERMSDelphi technique, decision support systems, qualitative methods, graph theory, social network, crowd opinion.

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