Computationally-defined markers of uncertainty aversion predict trajectories of perceived threat and anxiety during a global pandemic

Abstract

Exposure to stressful life events involving threat and uncertainty often results in the development of anxiety. However, the factors that confer risk and resilience for anxiety following real world stress at a computational level remain unclear. We identified core components of uncertainty aversion moderating response to stress posed by the COVID-19 pandemic derived from computational modelling of decision making. Using both cross-sectional and longitudinal analyses, we investigated both immediate effects at the onset of the stressor, as well as medium-term changes in response to persistent stress. 479 subjects based in the United States completed a decision-making task measuring risk aversion, loss aversion, and ambiguity aversion in the early stages of the pandemic (March 2020). Self-report measures targeting threat perception, anxiety, and avoidant behavior in response to the pandemic were collected at the same time point and 8 weeks later (May 2020). Cross-sectional analyses indicated that higher risk aversion predicted higher perceived threat from the pandemic, and ambiguity aversion for guaranteed gains predicted perceived threat and pandemic-related anxiety. In longitudinal analyses, ambiguity aversion for guaranteed gains predicted greater increases in perceived infection likelihood. Together, these results suggest that individuals who have a low-level aversion towards uncertainty show stronger negative reactions to both the onset and persistence of real-life stress.

Computationally-defined markers of uncertainty aversion predict emotional responses during a global pandemic.

“…This suggests that individuals who are less comfortable with ambiguous situations may have more extreme perceptions of stressful events and become more anxious about them, echoing results from work on the moderating role of intolerance uncertainty on reactions to stress (Chen & Hong, 2010;Oglesby et al, 2016). It is intriguing that this effect was specific to guaranteed gains, as this suggests that it is perceptions of positive outcomes that drives these reactions, when responses to negative outcomes are frequently implicated in anxiety (Aylward et al, 2019;Browning et al, 2015;Wise et al, 2019;Wise & Dolan, 2019). We found similar results with risk aversion, whereby subjects who were more risk averse also perceived infection severity to be greater, pointing to a role of risk aversion in risk perception.…”

“…Data is available at https://osf.io/jgpex/ (Wise, 2021) and code is available at https://github.com/tobywise/uncertainty-pandemic -threat-perception. This work was not preregistered.…”

“…Recent research in computational psychiatry has allowed these biases to be quantified with greater precision, facilitating inference about their role in psychopathology (Friston et al, 2014;Montague et al, 2012). Specifically, a number of previous studies have reported that processes involved in learning and decision making under uncertainty play a role in both trait and clinical anxiety (Aylward et al, 2019;Charpentier et al, 2017;Huang et al, 2017;Wise & Dolan, 2019). Specifically, three main aspects of decision making have been highlighted as playing important roles: risk aversion, loss aversion and ambiguity aversion.…”