Computationally-defined markers of uncertainty aversion predict emotional responses during a global pandemic.

Abstract

Exposure to stressful life events involving threat and uncertainty often results in the development of anxiety. However, the factors that confer risk and resilience for anxiety following real world stress at a computational level remain unclear. We identified core components of uncertainty aversion moderating response to stress posed by the COVID-19 pandemic derived from computational modeling of decision making. Using both cross-sectional and longitudinal analyses, we investigated both immediate effects at the onset of the stressor, as well as medium-term changes in response to persistent stress. 479 subjects based in the United States completed a decision-making task measuring risk aversion, loss aversion, and ambiguity aversion in the early stages of the pandemic (March 2020). Self-report measures targeting threat perception, anxiety, and avoidant behavior in response to the pandemic were collected at the same time point and 8 weeks later (May 2020). Cross-sectional analyses indicated that higher risk aversion predicted higher perceived threat from the pandemic, and ambiguity aversion for guaranteed gains predicted perceived threat and pandemic-related anxiety. In longitudinal analyses, ambiguity aversion for guaranteed gains predicted greater increases in perceived infection likelihood. Together, these results suggest that individuals who have a low-level aversion toward uncertainty show stronger negative emotional reactions to both the onset and persistence of real-life stress.

Risk and Loss Aversion and Attitude to COVID and Vaccines in Anxious Individuals

“…At the same time, anxious individuals showed increased avoidance in implementing changes in their actions as the pandemic developed, for example continuing to cancel family events or trips even as the pandemic eased off. The first result is also consistent with Wise et al (2022), where it is reported that higher risk aversion is linked to higher perceived threat from the pandemic. In our study, we are interested in determining whether behaviours like receiving COVID vaccinations, following government's guidelines, wearing more protective types of face masks are modulated by anxiety and individual propensity to taking risks and/or accepting losses.…”

“…As discussed above, Charpentier et al (2017) reports increased risk aversion in anxious individuals, whereas Xu et al (2020) reports no difference in risk aversion for low and high anxiety groups. Two recent studies (Wise et al, 2022;Pike et al, 2023) also failed to observe a relationship between anxiety and differences in risk-taking, despite using different decisionmaking tasks. A recent meta-analysis (Wake, Wormwood, and Satpute, 2020) on the effects of fear (and anxiety) on risk-taking reports a small to moderate effect size linking fear to increased risk aversion, but with high heterogeneity in effect sizes.…”

Identifying Transdiagnostic Mechanisms in Mental Health Using Computational Factor Modeling

“…One possibility is that increases in risk and ambiguity aversion may be a state rather than a trait marker of anxiety that emerges in individuals exhibiting acute symptoms. In line with this account, 1 study in a large, unselected sample found that heightened ambiguity aversion was linked to COVID-19-induced anxiety (64).…”

“…The apparent state-dependence of uncertainty-guided decision-making strategies in anxiety (64) raises the possibility that these may represent causal or maintaining factors that could be targeted through intervention. Indeed, asking healthy subjects to adopt different cognitive strategies to regulate emotional responses has been shown to influence risk aversion (91).…”

Anxiety as a disorder of uncertainty: implications for understanding maladaptive anxiety, anxious avoidance, and exposure therapy

“…Understanding how early life stress, perceptions of control, anxiety sensitivity, and other risk factors for anxiety (Zinbarg et al, 2022) potentiate, maintain, and are caused by disrupted uncertainty learning can show how these risk factors can be modified or buffered. Longitudinal studies will be especially important to understand the relationships between these risk factors and uncertainty learning and avoidance over time (e.g., (Struijs et al, 2018;Wise et al, 2022).…”