Comprehensive climatic suitability evaluation of peanut in Huang-Huai-Hai region under the background of climate change

Wei, Sicheng; Li, Kaiwei; Yang, Yueting; Wang, Chunyi; Liu, Cong; Zhang, Jiquan

doi:10.1038/s41598-022-15465-3

Cited by 13 publications

(7 citation statements)

References 37 publications

(31 reference statements)

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“…Furthermore, the least impacts at the other site confirm the potential of continued groundnut production under climate change. Positive climate change response of groundnut has been reported in many other studies [37][38][39]. Two possible reasons explaining this positive response of groundnut to climate change.…”

Section: Plos Onementioning

confidence: 68%

Use of modelling tools to assess climate change impacts on smallholder oil seed yields in South Africa

Kephe,

Mkuhlani,

Rusere

et al. 2024

PLoS ONE

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Oil seed crops are the second most important field crops after cereals in the agricultural economy globally. The use and demand for oilseed crops such as groundnut, soybean and sunflower have grown significantly, but climate change is expected to alter the agroecological conditions required for oilseed crop production. This study aims to present an approach that utilizes decision-making tools to assess the potential climate change impacts on groundnut, soybean and sunflower yields and the greenhouse gas emissions from the management of the crops. The Decision Support Tool for Agrotechnology Transfer (DSSAT v4.7), a dynamic crop model and the Cool Farm Tool, a GHG calculator, was used to simulate yields and estimate GHG emissions from these crops, respectively. Four representative concentration pathways (RCPs 2.6, 4.5, 6.0, and 8.5), three nitrogen (0, 75, and 150 kg/ha) and phosphorous (0, 30 and 60 P kg/ha) fertilizer rates at three sites in Limpopo, South Africa (Ofcolaco, Syferkuil and Punda Maria) were used in field trials for calibrating the models. The highest yield was achieved by sunflower across all crops, years and sites. Soybean yield is projected to decrease across all sites and scenarios by 2030 and 2050, except at Ofcolaco, where yield increases of at least 15.6% is projected under the RCP 4.5 scenario. Positive climate change impacts are predicted for groundnut at Ofcolaco and Syferkuil by 2030 and 2050, while negative impacts with losses of up to 50% are projected under RCP8.5 by 2050 at Punda Maria. Sunflower yield is projected to decrease across all sites and scenarios by 2030 and 2050. A comparison of the climate change impacts across sites shows that groundnut yield is projected to increase under climate change while notable yield losses are projected for sunflower and soybean. GHG emissions from the management of each crop showed that sunflower and groundnut production had the highest and lowest emissions across all sites respectively. With positive climate change impacts, a reduction of GHG emissions per ton per hectare was projected for groundnuts at Ofcolaco and Syferkuil and for sunflower in Ofcolaco in the future. However, the carbon footprint from groundnut is expected to increase by 40 to 107% in Punda Maria for the period up to 2030 and between 70–250% for 2050, with sunflower following a similar trend. We conclude that climate change will potentially reduce yield for oilseed crops while management will increase emissions. Therefore, in designing adaptation measures, there is a need to consider emission effects to gain a holistic understanding of how both climate change impacts on crops and mitigation efforts could be targeted.

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Section: Plos Onementioning

confidence: 68%

Use of modelling tools to assess climate change impacts on smallholder oil seed yields in South Africa

Kephe,

Mkuhlani,

Rusere

et al. 2024

PLoS ONE

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“…From the perspective of the atmosphere-plant-soil continuum, this paper selects SPEI, VCI, and SMCI to construct a comprehensive drought index (MFDI) in order to describe the drought effects on peanut crops. According to previous research [37], the growth period can be divided into three stages: the early growth period (May), middle growth period (June), and late growth period (July-September).…”

Section: Study Area and Data Sourcesmentioning

confidence: 99%

Three-Dimensional Vulnerability Assessment of Peanut (Arachis hypogaea) Based on Comprehensive Drought Index and Vulnerability Surface: A Case Study of Shandong Province, China

Wei

Yang

et al. 2022

Remote Sensing

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Agricultural drought is a major problem facing China’s agricultural production. In this study, the cash crop ‘peanut’ was used as an example to explore vulnerability. Through the atmosphere–plant–soil continuum system, a single index that could represent different types of droughts affecting peanuts was selected and weighted using the CRITIC weighting method to construct a multi-source data fusion drought index (MFDI). Then, Pearson correlation analysis between the comprehensive drought index and relative meteorological yield and the Mann–Kendall trend test for different growth periods of peanuts were used to verify MFDI and analyze the variation over time. A three-dimensional vulnerability assessment method of drought intensity–drought duration–yield reduction rate was established based on the run theory and trend surface analysis. The results show that the constructed multi-source data fusion drought index (MFDI) can more accurately characterize the actual drought conditions of peanuts in Shandong Province. The MFDI results showed that the drought severity in the coastal areas of the study area decreased with the growth and development of peanuts, while the drought became more severe in the western and northern parts during the late growth period of peanuts. The vulnerability surface of the drought intensity–drought duration–yield reduction rate showed that when the drought intensity was <0.8 and the duration was <3.5 months, the vulnerability of peanut crops was low, and then with the increase in drought intensity or duration, the vulnerability increased. The impact of drought duration cannot be ignored. In contrast to traditional vulnerability assessment methods, this study established a three-dimensional vulnerability surface, which provides a new approach for agricultural drought vulnerability assessment. The research results are helpful for a deeper understanding of the relationship between drought and crop vulnerability and provide scientific support for local governments in formulating disaster prevention and mitigation policies.

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“…Tang et al [25,26] analyzed the impact of current and future climate scenarios on the suitability of summer maize and winter wheat in the North China Plain. Wei et al [27] established a peanut climatic suitability model to optimize peanut planting structure. Zhao et al [28] constructed a climatic suitability model to analyze the climatic suitability and changes in potato-planting zoning in North China.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Assessing Changes in Climatic Suitability for Sesame Cultivation in China (1978–2019) Based on Fuzzy Mathematics

Wang,

Zhang,

Zhang

et al. 2024

Agronomy

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Sesame is one of the important oil seed crops grown for the high-quality oil. Its growth, development, and yield are significantly affected by the changing climate conditions. Evaluating the sesame climatic suitability is crucial to optimize sesame cultivation patterns and planting distribution, and to aid strategic decision making for future agricultural adaptation. Based on agricultural climatic suitability theory and the fuzzy mathematics method, in this study, we established the temperature, precipitation, sunshine, and comprehensive suitability model. Then, we assessed the spatial distribution and chronological changes in climatic suitability under two periods, 1978–1998 (earlier 21 years) and 1999–2019 (latter 21 years). The results showed that compared with the meteorological data in the earlier 21 years, the mean temperature during the sesame-growing season in the latter 21 years increased from 24.48 °C to 25.05 °C, and the cumulative precipitation increased from 744.38 mm to 754.81 mm; however, the sunshine hours decreased from 6.05 h to 5.55 h. Temperature, precipitation, sunshine, and comprehensive suitability during the sesame-growing season in the main sesame-producing areas of China all had a downward trend. The distribution of temperature and comprehensive suitability in the north is higher than that in the south, while the precipitation and sunshine suitability had an uneven distribution. The area of high-temperature suitability and high-precipitation suitability increased from 43.45 × 106 ha to 46.34 × 106 ha and from 3.20 × 106 ha to 7.97 × 106 ha, respectively, whereas the area of high-sunshine suitability decreased from 4.04 × 106 ha to 2.09 × 106 ha. The climate change was more beneficial to sesame cultivation in northeast Anhui where the area of high climatic suitability clearly expanded, and in eastern Jiangxi where the area of the general climatic suitability increased. In contrast, it is worth noting that the area of high climatic suitability in northern Henan decreased and the area of low climatic suitability in Hubei increased. Our results have important implications for improving agricultural production to cope with ongoing climate change.

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Comprehensive climatic suitability evaluation of peanut in Huang-Huai-Hai region under the background of climate change

Cited by 13 publications

References 37 publications

Use of modelling tools to assess climate change impacts on smallholder oil seed yields in South Africa

Use of modelling tools to assess climate change impacts on smallholder oil seed yields in South Africa

Three-Dimensional Vulnerability Assessment of Peanut (Arachis hypogaea) Based on Comprehensive Drought Index and Vulnerability Surface: A Case Study of Shandong Province, China

Assessing Changes in Climatic Suitability for Sesame Cultivation in China (1978–2019) Based on Fuzzy Mathematics

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