Three-Dimensional Vulnerability Assessment of Peanut (Arachis hypogaea) Based on Comprehensive Drought Index and Vulnerability Surface: A Case Study of Shandong Province, China

Abstract

Agricultural drought is a major problem facing China’s agricultural production. In this study, the cash crop ‘peanut’ was used as an example to explore vulnerability. Through the atmosphere–plant–soil continuum system, a single index that could represent different types of droughts affecting peanuts was selected and weighted using the CRITIC weighting method to construct a multi-source data fusion drought index (MFDI). Then, Pearson correlation analysis between the comprehensive drought index and relative meteorological yield and the Mann–Kendall trend test for different growth periods of peanuts were used to verify MFDI and analyze the variation over time. A three-dimensional vulnerability assessment method of drought intensity–drought duration–yield reduction rate was established based on the run theory and trend surface analysis. The results show that the constructed multi-source data fusion drought index (MFDI) can more accurately characterize the actual drought conditions of peanuts in Shandong Province. The MFDI results showed that the drought severity in the coastal areas of the study area decreased with the growth and development of peanuts, while the drought became more severe in the western and northern parts during the late growth period of peanuts. The vulnerability surface of the drought intensity–drought duration–yield reduction rate showed that when the drought intensity was <0.8 and the duration was <3.5 months, the vulnerability of peanut crops was low, and then with the increase in drought intensity or duration, the vulnerability increased. The impact of drought duration cannot be ignored. In contrast to traditional vulnerability assessment methods, this study established a three-dimensional vulnerability surface, which provides a new approach for agricultural drought vulnerability assessment. The research results are helpful for a deeper understanding of the relationship between drought and crop vulnerability and provide scientific support for local governments in formulating disaster prevention and mitigation policies.